Sinner or Alcaraz? Courier and Roddick preview the blockbuster in Rome

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Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have dominated the men’s tour since the start of last year, sweeping the six biggest events in that time between them—five Grand Slams and the ATP Finals.

On Sunday they’ll play for another big title, a Masters 1000, in Rome.

Here are 10 things to know going into their blockbuster clash.

Sinner has the slightly better career record in finals. He’s 19-5, while Alcaraz is 18-6. Coincidentally, they’re both playing their 25th career final. And if he wins, Sinner—who was born in 2001—would become the first man born in the 2000s to capture 20 career titles.

Alcaraz has the better record in Masters 1000 finals, though. He’s 6-1, while Sinner is 4-2. And Alcaraz’s only loss in a Masters 1000 final could easily have swung the other way—he fell to Novak Djokovic in the final of Cincinnati in 2023, 5-7, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (4), after not only leading by a set and a break at 7-5, 4-2, but also having held a match point up 6-5 in the second set tie-break.

This will be the third and biggest final they’ve ever played against each other. The first Sinner-Alcaraz final came in Umag, Croatia in 2022—an ATP 250 on clay—which the Italian won, 6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-1. The second one came in Beijing last fall—an ATP 500 on hard—which the Spaniard won, 6-7 (6), 6-4, 7-6 (3). The stakes double again as they now play each other for a Masters 1000.

Alcaraz has won the pair's last three meetings in a row, but Sinner was ahead in all of them.

Alcaraz has won the pair's last three meetings in a row, but Sinner was ahead in all of them.

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Sinner comes into the final on a 26-match winning streak. His last loss was that finals loss to Alcaraz in Beijing last October. He’s just the fifth man this century to win 25 or more matches in a row, after Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.

Sinner’s won his last 11 matches in a row (and his last 24 sets in a row) against Top 10 players, too. That streak dates back to the aforementioned loss to Alcaraz in Beijing last fall, as well.

Alcaraz is going for his 30th win of the year—he would be the first man to hit that number this year. He's 29-5 this year going into the final. Alex de Minaur (26-9) and Francisco Cerundolo (26-10) are tied for second-most wins on the men’s tour this year.

Alcaraz is also going for the 40th Top 10 win of his career. With 39 coming into today, he has the second-most career Top 10 wins among men born in the 2000s, after Sinner, who has 43.

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Alcaraz is trying to become the first man to beat Sinner twice since he became No. 1. The Italian is an absolutely ridiculous 52-3 since he rose to the top spot after Roland Garros in June of last year, the only three losses coming to Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals in Canada and, again, Alcaraz in the final of Beijing.

Sinner is trying to become the first Italian man to win in Rome since it became a Masters 1000 event in 1990. The 23-year-old would be just the second Italian man to win the event in the Open Era, period, after Adriano Panatta's home triumph in 1976.

And finally, the head-to-head breakdown.

Alcaraz leads Sinner in their overall head-to-head, 6-4, and has won their last three meetings in a row. None of those last three wins came easily, though. They all came last year, with the Spaniard rebounding from a first-set blow-out to win in the Indian Wells semifinals, 1-6, 6-3, 6-2, then rallying from two-sets-to-one down in the Roland Garros semifinals, 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, then coming back from 3-0 down in the third set tie-break to win the Beijing final, 6-7 (6), 6-4, 7-6 (3). They're 1-1 in finals and 1-1 on clay.