Could the next installment of Sincaraz be decided at net?

Carlos Alcaraz is almost single-handedly reshaping the way tennis is being played at the highest level—accomplishing a feat that many players, coaches and pundits have written off as impossible in an era defined by powerful racquets, synthetic strings and unrelenting baseline play.

Set aside the latest installment of Sincaraz, in which Jannik Sinner barreled through the Spaniard in the Monte Carlo Masters (more on that later). And let’s hold our collective breath while Alcaraz deals with the sore wrist that led him to pull out of the Barcelona tournament just days later—and, subsequently, Madrid.

For now, let’s savor the way men’s tennis has been shaped for some time now by Alcaraz’s success, and the belief it has rekindled in aggressive, attacking tennis, including serve-and-volley.

The message is clear: You are not going to beat The Wizard of Murcia with standard-issue baseline tennis, even if you have that big serve and plus-one forehand. Alcaraz has become the straw that stirs the ATP drink.

This is a pretty radical, and irony-rich, development. Hordes of developing players are using the 22-year-old, seven-time Grand Slam singles champion as their template. Most of them are doomed to come up short, yet in doing so they will inevitably become more versatile competitors. Meanwhile, ATP pros are searching in real time for an antidote to the Alcaraz game. Sinner, now 7-10 against Alcaraz, put the mission in stark terms following loss to him in last year’s US Open final.

“I was very predictable on court today,” Sinner said at the time. “He (Alcaraz) changed up the game. . .Now it’s going to be on me if I want to make changes or not. We’re definitely going to work on that.”

He added,

I didn’t make one serve and volley (today). I didn’t use a lot of drop shots. Then you arrive at the point where you have to play Carlos, you have to go out of the comfort zone.

When Alcaraz emerged as a force, Sinner (nearly two years older) already seemed to have a picture-perfect game for his times. But Alcaraz revealed that it was still a little blurry around the edges. The threat posed by Alcaraz forced Sinner to change, and his game has come into sharp focus. Well before the Italian star upended Alcaraz in Monte Carlo in that atypical, windblown final, we saw just how much more well-rounded Sinner’s game has become. Bear in mind, Sinner had never before won a clay tournament higher than the 250-level.

Players have been embracing that imperative articulated last fall by Sinner, many among them expressing a desire to play “more aggressive” rather than more consistent tennis. They are showing greater tolerance for risk.

In Monte Carlo, local sensation Valentin Vacherot found himself down love-40 while serving at 4-3 to one of the toughest outs in tennis, Alex de Minaur. The next point, Vacherot attacked the net behind a kick second serve and punched away a cross-court forehand volley, then went on to win the game. Sure, it’s just an anecdote. But it’s a representative one.

Paul Annacone, a Tennis Channel commentator and adviser to Taylor Fritz, said of Vacherot’s style: “I’m impressed by his (Vacherot’s) willingness to come forward in moments that are really stressful. He isn’t afraid to push the envelope.”

Some pros are pushing that envelope with greater urgency. Sure, attacking the net is the most adventuresome ploy in tennis. But knowing your way around up there is an asset for anyone having to deal with sharply angled groundstrokes or drop shots—a product that Alcaraz has been pushing with the relentlessness of an auto insurance provider. The truth is dawning: The net is there. Deal with it.

Alexander Zverev, by far the best active player who has yet to win a major, has spoken frequently in recent months about playing a more purposeful, aggressive game. The approach paid off for him earlier this year, in his Australian Open semifinal battle with Alcaraz. Zverev served for the match at 5-4 in the fifth set, and while Alcaraz staged a miraculous escape to win, it was Zverev’s embrace of risk that brought him to the brink.

In that match, Zverev approached the net 55 times, winning 31 of those points. He averaged more than 10 forays to the net per set, compared to nine by Alcaraz (who won 78 per cent (35/45) of his net points). Zverev was more successful in his recent Monte Carlo quarterfinal with rising star Joao Fonseca, winning in three sets, aided greatly by winning 17 of 20 points at net.

Novak Djokovic throttled Alcaraz in the 2023 Cincinnati Masters final, an epic clash that was a harbinger of the impact Alcaraz would have on strategy and tactics. Djokovic approached the net only four times in the first set, but he made a critical adjustment and came forward more frequently thereafter—a decision that paved the way for his win. He won 14 of 20 points at the net. For his part, Alcaraz saved a couple of match points with serve-and-volley tennis, and ultimately posted identical net play numbers.

Although Djokovic eventually won, what he saw of the teenager Alcaraz was enough to make the paragon of defense and aggressive baseline precision say,

I do wish sometimes I can play maybe in some moments slightly more aggressive.

There will be a lot more data on aggressive tennis in the days leading up to Roland Garros. So here’s an interesting data set gathered from that tournament’s first three rounds of play by renowned analyst Craig O’Shannessy. It compares the success rate of players at the baseline and at the net, with special emphasis on more aggressive net rushers. It was an attempt to the test the conventional wisdom holding that, “The more you go in, the more you are likely to lose—not win.”

O’Shannessey created a dataset of men who had approached the net 75 or more times—a hefty number for clay tennis. That yielded 22 players. Theoretically, those players should have a lower winning percentage at the net than the tournament average because they are taking more risks. And their success rate also should be lower than that of baseliners.

Wrong on both counts.

It turns out that the 22 players who came to the net 75 times or more (leader Tommy Paul made 139 trips) had a better winning percentage at the net than the rest of the men’s field, 69% to 65%. Moreover, the baseline winning percentage for all male players through those three rounds was just 47%. So, even with the easy putaways and overhead smashes taken into account, the superior success rate at the net is striking.

Carlos Alcaraz opened the Pandora’s box of net play, and closing it may not be easy.