Picks of the Day: Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev & Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic, ATP Finals

The semifinals of the ATP's season-ending championships just so happen to feature the four highest-ranked players in the world. Keep reading to see how I'm betting both of these matches, as we look to end the year on a positive note.

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

Sinner has been playing some tremendous tennis over the second half of the season, and he’s going to have the crowd behind him in a big way against Medvedev. It’s hardly outrageous to think that Sinner will win this match. But I do find it hard to turn down Medvedev at plus-money odds. I think we’re heading towards a few tiebreakers, which makes this something of a toss-up. And ultimately, I trust Medvedev’s ability to solve problems more than I do Sinner’s.

Medvedev is known as a master strategist, and he’ll make adjustments throughouts this match to account for what he’s seeing on the other side of the court. Sinner, who has improved greatly in the mental part of the game, still has to prove that he can do the same. He can do that and make a  huge statement by winning this tournament with a 5-0 record. But when it comes to betting with hard-earned money, I’ll need to see it to believe it. I also think it’s hard to ignore that Sinner has a slight back issue entering this match. Will he have what it takes to outlast one of the game’s fittest players—and one of the best defenders on the planet?

Bet: Medvedev ML (+125)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic

It’s exciting that we’re getting a fifth meeting between these new rivals, but there are some interesting circumstances surrounding this match. For starters, Alcaraz didn’t look like himself in the weeks and months leading up to this event. He found his game in wins over Andrey Rublev and Medvedev, but this is the least trustworthy Alcaraz has been over the last 12 months. So it’s hard to back him right now, even at tempting plus-money odds.

But Djokovic has also openly stated that he doesn’t care too much about the results of this event—the majors are everything to him at this point. And while I’m not sure I completely believe him, I do think Djokovic has to be at his very best in order to beat Alcaraz. With that in mind, I think the safest play is taking the Over on the game total. I’m not sure Alcaraz will play at a high level for the entire match, and I’m not certain Djokovic will be fully locked in from the jump. But I do know that these guys badly want to beat one another, and that will manifest itself at some point. I think we’re looking at a three-setter.

Bet: Over 23.5 Games (-105)