Jannik Sinner kicks off title defense, Novak Djokovic returns | 2025 Shanghai Masters Preview

A week ago, when Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner started their campaigns in Tokyo and Beijing, I wrote that one of the benefits of having a tour led by young players again is that they play full schedules. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean they can’t get hurt. While Alcaraz went on to win in Tokyo, he injured his ankle along the way, and made a last-minute withdrawal from the bigger event in Shanghai.

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Where does that leave the penultimate Masters 1000 of 2025, which runs through next Sunday? It still has 96 players. It still has the vast majority of the Top 50. It still has Jannik Sinner. And it still has Novak Djokovic, a not-so-young player who plays about as full a schedule as possible for a 38-year-old.

Here are three things to watch for over the next 10 days in Shanghai.

Jannik Sinner will try to keep pace with Carlos Alcaraz—and himself

Alcaraz’s absence robs Shanghai of one of its major reasons for being this season: To give us another final between the Spaniard and the Italian. But their race for the year-end No. 1 spot will still be a factor this week.

Sinner trails Alcaraz by 2,540 points in that two-man chase. Nobody else is within 4,000 points of them. The Spaniard’s absence in Shanghai opens the door for the Italian to close that gap by 1,000 points. As far as their weekly rankings go, Sinner will be fighting against the 2024 version of himself. He won this title in 2024, which means he’s defending all of those points.

There’s no good reason he won’t. He likes these courts, he’s healthy, he’s coming off a win in Beijing, and he’s probably hungrier than most of his colleagues after his three-month suspension at the start of the year.

At this point, Sinner will be the heavy favorite, no matter who is in his draw. But a few names do pop out in his half: He could play Alexander Bublik, who beat him on grass this year, inn the fourth round; Taylor Fritz in the quarters; and Djokovic in the semifinals.

Sinner says he’s trying to incorporate new elements into his game. We should start to get an idea of what he’s been working on in Shanghai.

Who are the other players to watch?

This is the time of year when we focus in on the Race to Turin. Right now, though, the Top 8 —Alcaraz, Sinner, Zverev, Djokovic, Fritz, Shelton, De Minaur, Musetti—appear close to being set in stone. At No. 9 is an injured Jack Draper, and No. 10, Felix Auger-Aliassime, is 630 points behind Musetti.

Still, a big week from the guys just outside the Top 8—FAA, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Alexander Bublik, Holger Rune—could shake the race up as it heads into its final month in Europe.

A few others to follow:

• Learner Tien: He just made the final in Beijing, and is in the section of the draw that Alcaraz exited
• Daniil Medvedev: He won this tournament in 2019, and was playing well in Beijing before melting down with cramps in the semifinals. He’s also in Alcaraz’s former section
• Felix Auger-Aliassime: He’s No. 10 in the race, and will start against Alejandro Tabilo. How real was his US Open semifinal run?
• Ben Shelton: He says he wouldn’t have made the trip if his recently-injured shoulder wasn’t ready. He’ll start against David Goffin.
• Casper Ruud: He made the semis in Beijing, and is on the Turin bubble
• Novak Djokovic: A four-time champion here, and finalist in 2024, he begins with Marin Cilic and could play Frances Tiafoe after that.
• Taylor Fritz: Is he brimming with confidence after a couple of good weeks, or feeling burned out? He’ll open against Fabian Marozsan, and is in Sinner’s quarter.

What are the possible third-round matches to look for?

Andrey Rublev vs. Flavio Cobolli: Rublev has a long-shot chance for Turin

Alexander Zverev vs. Alex Michelsen: Did making his Laver Cup debut give the young American a boost?

Auger-Aliassime vs. Jakub Mensik

Casper Ruud vs. Francisco Cerundolo: These two played in the semis in Madrid in May. Where had the Argentine gone since then?

Taylor Fritz vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: The American escaped from the Frenchman’s grasp in five sets at Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic vs. Frances Tiafoe