Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic: Australian Open semifinal preview and pick

Djokovic wasn’t mincing words with himself.

“I have to play better, I mean, no doubt about it,” he said after advancing past an injured Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals. “I think I’ve underperformed for the level that I showed throughout this tournament up to today.”

“Underperformed” may have been an understatement. After a quick early break, Djokovic looked uncomfortable for most of the next two sets. Twenty minutes in, he had already sweated through a shirt. Twice he came out late after changeovers. He was minus-6 in winner-to-error ratio, and he won just 39 percent of his second-serve points. Musetti was better in every category, until a leg injury made it too painful to continue.

That obviously doesn’t bode well for Djokovic’s chances against Sinner. The last two times they played in Slam semifinals, at Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2025, Djokovic was considerably sharper coming in, and he still failed to win a set from the Italian. In those matches, Sinner looked something like a Djokovic 2.0—his strokes were every bit as clinical, but hit with more speed. Sinner has won their last five matches, and six of their last seven.

For Djokovic fans looking for hope, he will have a couple of things going for him this time around. It’s the Australian Open, a tournament he has won 10 times, and a court that suits him as well as any other. He has a history of bouncing back quickly from poor performances. And he hasn’t gone through as much physical strain as he did at the majors last year. Djokovic got a walkover in the fourth round, and played less then three sets in the quarterfinals. At the Slams in 2025, by the time he staggered into the semis, his body wasn’t ready to face Sinner or Alcaraz. That shouldn’t be a problem on Friday.

The problem, of course, will be Sinner. He looked as cool and collected and impenetrable as ever against Ben Shelton in the quarters. Djokovic can never be counted out, and he’ll muster everything he knows to make life as difficult as he can. But Sinner is the guy who is dominating Down Under now.

Winner: Sinner