AAGUILAR_2025 CINCIINNATI OPEN_08142025_1078

Upsets are fun, there’s no denying that. We watch tennis all year long, and we generally see the same players winning over and over again. That’s why it’s refreshing when a player like Terence Atmane, the world No. 132, goes to Cincinnati and knocks off players like Flavio Cobolli, Joao Fonseca, Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune. The only problem is that upsets usually lead to lopsided matchups later in tournaments, and that’s exactly what we’re getting when Atmane takes on world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the semifinals.

Atmane has played some outrageous tennis to get to this point, and the 23-year-old southpaw deserves a ton of credit for that. However, he has served uncharacteristically well in three of the five main-draw matches he has played, making at least 59.0% of his first serves. That’s a jump from the 57.8% first serve percentage he had in 2024, and the 57.7% first serve percentage he has in 2025. It’s concerning because Atmane is probably due for some regression against Sinner, and his only chance of making this a match is by being flawless with the ball on his racquet.

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Atmane has also played a ton of tennis since the start of this event: five main-draw matches and two in qualifying. Considering the hot and humid conditions we have seen in Cincinnati this week, you have to think that the time on court could catch up to him. Meanwhile, Sinner has played only four matches, with two of them being absolute dustings of Daniel Elahi Galan and Felix Auger Aliassime. The Italian should be fresh.

These are also the best possible conditions for Sinner, as his world-class serve and baseline power play up on quicker hard courts. The weight of his normal rally-balls could prove to be a little too much for Atmane to handle.

It’s hard to see this being anything but one-way traffic for Sinner, who takes all his opponents seriously. There are other elite players that would potentially overlook a qualifier at this stage in a tournament, but that’s really not Sinner’s style. He’s all business, all the time. That said, while this is a bit of a Debbie Downer suggestion, going Under on games or laying games feels like the right play in this match—with a slight lean to the latter.

Pick: Sinner -4.5 Games (-175)

Odds provided by BetMGM.