Jannik Sinner is year-end No. 1—and taking tennis to a new, impregnable place: "He has simplified the formula for greatness"

When Jannik Sinner hits a forehand, the ball doesn’t just come off the strings with the familiar “thwock,” like a popped champagne cork. It even sounds different—and that isn’t hyperbole.

“For sure you could see when you heard the sound of the ball, the explosion, I think you could understand that he was different from others,” Andrea Vavassori, Sinner’s Italian ATP compatriot has said, echoing similar observations. “The sound when he plays forehands and backhands is different from the other players.”

Sinner’s groundstrokes are different in another way, too. They are bigger, better and more reliable. And they have turned him into a player who blurs the line between attacking and defending. That’s partly due to how well he moves (especially for someone 6’3”), but also to his precise shot placement and fine calibrations of power and pace. Plus, despite his youth, the 23-year-old’s decision-making is impeccable.

If you tried to create a tennis player with Artificial Intelligence, you would probably end up with something—someone—like Sinner.

“Jannik has simplified the formula for greatness,” Paul Annacone, the Tennis Channel analyst and former coach of Roger Federer and Pete Sampras, recently told me. “He has fewer things in his game that can go wrong.”

So as the tennis season winds down, it’s reasonable to ask: Is Sinner taking the game to a place beyond which it can’t go, style-wise? Sure, Sinner has—and will continue to have—the occasional bad day. That comes with the territory. But look at his record: 22-1 since the start of the Cincinnati Masters; 65-6 on the year, with seven titles in eight finals, including wins at two majors (Australian Open and US Open) and three Masters 1000 triumphs. As a result, he locked up the coveted year-end No. 1 ranking before the middle of October.

Sinner’s shutdown capability has grown markedly. Craig Boynton, until recently the coach of Top 10 talent Hubert Hurkacz, told me, “Playing Jannik, a lot really depends upon what assets you can deploy against [Sinner] (a big serve, a heavy slice, spin, etc.) But you have to wonder if those assets will even make an impact.

“There’s no one obvious place you can go to get relief (take advantage of a weakness) when you play Jannik.”

Noting how few opportunities Sinner has been allowing opponents, Boynton added, “You hit a certain ball, you should get rewarded, right? But when you play Jannik, you hit that ball, and not only are you not rewarded, you haven't gotten ahead at all. So if you want to make an impact, you better have a great serve—and a great serving day.”

If you tried to create a tennis player with Artificial Intelligence, you would probably end up with something—someone—like Sinner.

Sinner was sensational from the jump on the ATP Tour while still a teenager in 2021, which makes his capacity for growth and evolution over the past two years even more striking. He’s resisted the pitfalls that a young player often faces when success, celebrity and stress enter the developmental equation.

Annacone sees three distinct areas of improvement. First, Sinner is a much better defender coming out of the corners now than during his apprenticeship.

“Only he and Alcaraz can defend really offensively from the corners,” Annacone said.

Second, Sinner’s serve has improved so much that Annacone said it is now “off the charts.” Indeed, he is in second place—but within a whisker—of leading the tour in winning percentage on both first and second-serve points (78.9 and 57.1 percent respectively).

Lastly, Sinner’s willingness to close and finish points at the net is much greater now.

Here as elsewhere, though, it’s hard to write (or speak) the name Sinner without evoking that of Carlos Alcaraz. Social media gave us “Fedal” to honor the linkage of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Now “Sinncaraz” may be in the offing, for another rivalry for the ages appears to be in the making.

There’s a whiff of Sampras vs. Agassi about this budding rivalry.

In addition to winning the two majors that Sinner did not, Alcaraz swept all three meetings with Sinner this year, including their clash in the semifinals of Roland Garros. But all three of those 2024 matches went the distance, including to a third-set tiebreaker in their most recent meeting (the Beijing final).

While Alcaraz still leads their head-to-head 7-4, Sinner’s overall record over all comers overshadows that of Alcaraz. The Spaniard is 51-10 in 2024, with four titles (one Masters 1000) in five finals. Sinner’s evolution simply appears to be more orderly.

Sinner has been methodically closing windows of opportunity for all but Alcaraz, which points toward the appealing contrast between the young titans. Alcaraz is full of exuberance and flair, clearly communicating the joy he takes from playing, By contrast, Sinner is very buttoned up—perhaps too much so, for those who are enamored of creativity and variety.

Emotionally, Alcaraz wears his heart on his sleeve, while Sinner has it tucked away, out of view. Alcaraz chases the high that comes with making a crazy-good shot. Sinner doesn’t do crazy. There’s a whiff of Sampras vs. Agassi about this budding rivalry.

Sinner’s more even record owes partly to the conventional, meat-and-potatoes quality of his game. It’s a great day-in, day-out asset. Thus far, only Alcaraz’s game is sufficiently aggressive and dynamic—as well as creative enough—to throw Sinner off balance. While Sinner’s game is less interesting, at times bot-like, Annacone believes that it will be better appreciated as the rivalry with Alcaraz matures, and/or other players find ways to trouble him.

“It’s a little bit like how much better (Ivan) Lendl looked when he was playing someone fiery, like (John) McEnroe, or how you really appreciated Chris Evert when she was playing Martina (Navratilova),’” Annacone said. “Sinner is always going to be less flashy and flamboyant than Alcaraz, but that also means Alcaraz’s ceiling is a little higher. But we’re talking fractions here, so it doesn’t matter much.”

What about all those other players, the Medvedevs, Zverevs, Fritzs and Tsitsipases? Sinner has taken the game to a new, impregnable place. When you do the same things as everyone else, just better, it’s difficult to see a new frontier to exploit.

“Maybe the answer is to make what’s old new again,” Boynton said. “What I see is guys maybe coming forward more. You have to. But you just don't come forward on anything. You've got to come forward on quality. But I think you'll start to see a little bit more of an emphasis in game planning and practicing on coming forward, and trying to take away what these guys (Sinner and Alcaraz) do so well.”

That’s a tall order, given how the game has evolved. But does anyone have a better solution?