Keyed Up

Where do we go after Indian Wells? Straight to Key Biscayne, as quickly as possible. In years past, after two weeks on hard courts in the California heat, there was a sense of déjà vu about the prospect of spending the next two weeks on hard courts in the Florida heat. This time around, though, the Miami Open may feel like a needed return to business as usual—i.e., seeing the world’s best tennis players play tennis. One that we’ll see for the first time since the Australian Open is Roger Federer, who is returning to the tour after having knee surgery in February. That should make everyone feel a little better, right? Here’s a look at what’s ahead for Federer and the rest of the men in the Miami draw.

While Novak Djokovic is coming off yet another dominant performance in the Indian Wells final, he may also be keen to put that event behind him. He overshadowed his own victory there by coming out against equal pay afterward. The hard courts of Miami would seem to be a good place for him to shrug off any distractions: He’s won the tournament five times, and is the two-time defending champion. (It’s getting hard these days to find events where Djokovic isn’t the two-time defending champion.)

Just in case Djokovic might be getting a little bored with all of this winning, he does have the chance to do something unprecedented over the next two weeks: Win the Indian Wells/Miami double, long considered one of the game’s toughest tasks, for a third straight time. He’ll start his campaign for that triple-double against either Kyle Edmund or Jiri Vesely. Challenges could come from Dominic Thiem in the round of 16 and Tomas Berdych in the quarters.

Player of Interest: After a long and successful February, Thiem looked gassed in Indian Wells. In Miami, the 22-year-old will face a new test, one that separates the top players from the one-hit wonders: defending points. He reached the quarters in Key Biscayne last year.

First-Round Match to Watch: Alexander Zverev vs. U.S. wild card Michael Mmoh

Semifinalist: Djokovic

The man who came closest to the Indian Wells/Miami triple-double is Federer; from 2004 to 2006, he won five of the six tournaments contested. Can he stop Djokovic from going him one better? It won’t be easy. Federer hasn’t been to the final in Miami since ’06, and hasn’t been to the semis since 2011. On the one hand, after missing Indian Wells he’ll come in fresher than he has in the past. On the other, he’ll have to shake off any rust quickly enough to avoid an early defeat. In that way, he could be in the same boat as his opening-round opponent, which might be Juan Martin del Potro.

Also Here: David Ferrer, David Goffin, Marin Cilic

Wild Card to Watch: Andrey Rublev. No, it’s not a screening of the three-and-a-half-hour Tarkovsky movie of the same name, but it could be the next 18-year-old to make a wave or two on tour. The Russian teen starts against Inigo Cervantes.

Considering Federer’s likely rust, this could be a wide-open section, but it's hard to find an obvious candidate who might plausibly reach the semis in his place.

Semifinalist: Federer

Like his friend, Federer, Rafael Nadal has had more success at Indian Wells than in Miami in recent years. He’s been the runner-up in Key Biscayne four times, but has never won it, and last year he went out in a wind-damaged third-round debacle to Fernando Verdasco. Rafa should feel better about his chances this time around. He made progress, especially from the forehand side, in Indian Wells, and nearly took a set from Djokovic for the first time in two years. He’ll start against either Damir Dzumhur or Leonardo Mayer.

While Nadal may like his current form, he may not like his draw quite as much. It’s littered with big hitters—Milos Raonic, John Isner, Nick Kyrgios, Jack Sock and No. 4 seed Stan Wawrinka. While Nadal is slated to play Wawrinka in the quarterfinals, history says the matchup won't take place: Stan has yet to make it that far in Miami in seven tries.

Returning, Again: Brian Baker

Question Mark: Raonic has a promising draw and is obviously in solid form, but on Sunday he re-aggravated the adductor injury that had sidelined him since the Aussie Open.

Semifinalist: Nadal

Unlike Federer and Nadal, Andy Murray typically saves his best for the second half of the spring hard-court season. While he has reached just one final in Indian Wells, back in 2009, he is a two-time champion and two-time runner-up at his tennis home away from home, Crandon Park.

Murray’s Indian Wells result was true to form; he lost early to Federico Delbonis. Can he repeat history again and go deep in Miami? His draw won’t make it easy. He starts against either Denis Istomin or Borna Coric; the latter recorded a win over Murray in 2015. After that, he could face, in successive rounds, Grigor Dimitrov, Gael Monfls and either Kei Nishikori or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Wild Card to Watch: 19-year-old Elias Ymer. The stylish young Swede will start against Delbonis.

Semifinalist: Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Federer; Murray d. Nadal

Final: Djokovic d. Murray