The final ATP event of the year begins on Sunday, November 13, when some of the top players in the world meet in Turin, Italy for the Nitto ATP Finals. The format features two groups of four players competing in a round robin, with the two top players from each foursome advancing to the semifinals.

The green group sees 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal competing with youngsters Felix Auger-Aliassime, Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz. The red group has 21-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic going to battle with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev. This is a tremendous collection of talent that we’ll get to watch all week, but it’s hard not to get excited about the odds on some players compared to others.

Nadal (+800) and Auger-Aliassime (+600) have to be licking their chops right now. The war between the two of them will make the road for the loser a lot tougher, but they also have to feel great about their chances of beating Ruud and Fritz. Ruud has lost four of his last five matches coming into this event, while Fritz is coming off a loss to Gilles Simon at the Rolex Paris Masters. Simon did have a lot of crowd support and adrenaline in that match, but it was still disappointing to see the American dropping that one. And while Fritz did beat Nadal in the Indian Wells final earlier in the year, the ATP Finals is one event that Nadal has never won. He'll be coming into this event hungry and it’s hard to see him not beating Fritz here. With all of that in mind, we’re locking in both of Uncle Toni’s boys, Rafa and FAA.

In the other group, we’re just looking at Djokovic (+135). A few weeks ago, we said that we’d play him at anything that pays out at plus-money and these odds are hard to turn down. Djokovic has a tough group to deal with in Italy, but that’s exactly what the Serbian should want. Having not had the opportunity to play in two of the year’s majors, Djokovic has seen the spotlight shift from him to world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz. Now, Djokovic has a chance to grab that attention back. He has to be thinking about running through this tournament and making his case as the best player in the world. And doing so with the tougher of the two groups would really remove all doubt in that regard.

There’s a realistic scenario in which Djokovic, Auger-Aliassime and Nadal all make the semifinals, and that would have to have you salivating if you end up betting on all three before the tournament. We recommend putting a full unit on Djokovic, a half-unit on Auger-Aliassime and a quarter-unit on Nadal. If you do that, you’d profit if any of the three win. But you’d be rooting extra hard for Auger-Aliassime, as that would be the most profitable outcome. That wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, as the Canadian had won three tournaments in a row before running into a red-hot Holger Rune in Paris. Auger-Aliassime is playing as well as anybody in the world right now and winning a tournament like this would give him a ton of confidence heading into next year.

Line Calls: 1 unit on Djokovic +135, 0.5 units on Auger-Aliassime +600 & 0.25 units on Nadal +800