Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev, Cincinnati

On Wednesday, Daniil Medvedev did a nice job of shrugging off his Toronto loss to Alex de Minaur by earning a 6-3, 6-2 win over Lorenzo Musetti. But Medvedev will now have to raise his level even more in his third-round meeting with Alexander Zverev at Cincinnati. While the 2021 US Open champion might ultimately end up winning this match outright, I don’t think he’ll do it in straight sets. So, I’m playing Zverev +1.5 sets at -145 odds here.

The reality here is that these two always play one another close. In fact, two of the last three matchups between these two have gone to a deciding third set, and the one that didn’t was dangerously close. Medvedev beat Zverev in straight sets on clay back in May, but he needed a second-set tiebreaker to do so. And I think this one will be a bit closer than that, with Zverev coming into this match with plenty of form.

Just a few weeks ago, Zverev was able to win a title in Hamburg, with the world No. 17 winning five clay-court matches to claim the championship in front of his home fans. Zverev then went to Toronto and picked up a straight-set victory over Tallon Griekspoor. Zverev then suffered an odd beatdown at the hands of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina after that, but he looked off from the start in that one. Zverev has responded by defeating Grigor Dimitrov and Yoshihito Nishioka at the Western & Southern Open, and he didn’t drop a set against either one. The win over Dimitrov was especially notable, as the Bulgarian has been playing some great tennis over the last few months.

With Zverev on a nice little roll coming into this match, I just don’t see anything preventing him from giving Medvedev a run for his money. In fact, it was impressive that Zverev was able to do it earlier in the year, as he was just getting comfortable after having returned from a serious ankle injury. Now, Zverev has gotten months and months of matches under his belt, so that injury is long in the past. He’s just trying to break through and start winning some big matches, and the title in Hamburg should definitely give him some confidence moving forward.

I also think it’s helpful that these two dislike each other. Zverev isn’t going to come out flat like he did against Davidovich Fokina last week. He’s going to be fired up and that means we should get his best tennis here. This is still a guy that is capable of playing at a top-five level, so that would be rather significant.

Overall, this is just a match between two big, talented players. We should see some very competitive sets, with the likelihood of a tiebreaker or two being high. And I think Zverev will have better fortune in those ‘breakers if we do get them. He has had some bad luck against Medvedev in the past, and that is due to change eventually.

Line Call: Zverev +1.5 Sets (-145)