Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Borna Coric, Madrid

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is a -1400 moneyline favorite heading into his semifinal with Borna Coric at the Mutua Madrid Open. That makes it hard to play a side in this one, unless you believe Coric can win outright. We think Alcaraz will ultimately get the job done, but it isn’t outrageous to think the Croatian will give him a bit of trouble. That’s why we’re looking at Coric’s player props and backing him to win Over 7.5 games at +100 odds.

Not many players have looked better than Coric this week, as the 2022 Western & Southern Open champion has dropped just one set on his way to the semis. Along the way, Coric earned wins over clay-court specialist Hugo Gaston, world No. 15 Hubert Hurkacz and one of the better young players on tour, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Coric also dismantled Daniel Altmaier in the quarterfinals despite having played a 3.5-hour match against Davidovich Fokina the day before.

When Coric is clicking like this, a good argument can be made that he’s a Top 15 player. He has no weaknesses along the baseline, with his backhand has been a serious weapon all week. He could even have a slight edge in backhand-to-backhand exchanges against Alcaraz. The Croatian just needs to do everything he can to avoid going to Alcaraz’s forehand side. Coric must also be ready to run quite a bit, as Alcaraz is going to try and hit his drop shot/change-up whenever possible.

We’re confident the Croatian can win at least eight games in this match, though. If he loses the first set 7-5, or drops a tiebreaker, he’ll need to win just a few games in the second set in order to cash. But overall, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Coric were to do a bit more than that. Alcaraz has had some impressive wins this week, but he looked like he was on the brink of losing to Emil Ruusuvuori in his opener, and Karen Khachanov certainly tested the Spaniard in the quarterfinals. If that version of Alcaraz shows up against Coric, the Croatian could force a decider.

Coric noted on Wednesday that Alcaraz is the favorite coming into this one, and he said that he just wants to enjoy himself and continue playing at a venue he loves. That doesn’t sound like a player that will tighten up because of the pressure. We expect Coric to come out and swing freely, which should allow him to put a little scare into Alcaraz. The Spaniard should find a way through, and he’s likely looking at yet another big clay-court title. But asking him to wipe the floor with a very good player is a bit unfair.

Line Call: Coric Over 7.5 Game Won (+100)