Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Karolina Muchova vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Roland Garros

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Sabalenka vs Muchova

On Thursday, Aryna Sabalenka takes on Karolina Muchova in the Roland Garros semifinals. Muchova was one of our picks to emerge from the third quarter of the draw, and she ultimately ended up doing so, dropping only a single set along the way. But now, she’s running into a whole different type of opponent in Sabalenka, who hasn’t dropped any sets to this point. Sabalenka also faced two difficult challenges in her last two matches, as she ran into in-form versions of Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina.

With Sabalenka listed as a -310 favorite, it’s hard to suggest taking the moneyline here. But one play I do like is for Sabalenka to win in straight sets, which pays out at -135 odds. There’s a reason Sabalenka is such a heavy favorite to win this one, and that’s because there’s just a massive talent gap here.

Sabalenka and Muchova have only met once and that was in Zhuhai, back in 2019. Sabalenka earned a 7-5, 6-4 (4) win, and I can see this one being similar—although potentially more lopsided.

A lot of people were quick to question Sabalenka’s clay-court ability heading into this season, but the Belarusian quickly showed the world that her game translates to the slow surface. She won a massive title in Madrid, beating Iga Swiatek in the final. And the slower conditions in Paris might actually be an even better fit for her.

These gritty conditions at Roland Garros aren’t for everybody, but players that can hit a heavy ball have had no trouble dealing with it. Sabalenka has more power than anybody on the WTA tour, and I’m not sure it’s particularly close. That has been a key to her dominance in Paris, as she still has the power required to hit winners, while her peers struggle to do so. Also, while Sabalenka doesn’t move as well as other elite players on the terre battue, the fact that these courts are so slow has given her the chance to track down shots a little more frequently.

Another thing to consider here is that Muchova’s backhand can be a bit of a weakness from the baseline. That shot has held up to this point in the tournament, but that’s because she has had time to really set up for it. The weight of Sabalenka’s shots won't give her any chance of doing so.

The only reason to worry about Sabalenka is her serve, which can occasionally get away from her. But she has done a good job of avoiding major lulls in 2023, and I think she’ll be all business as she tries to get out of this quickly to prepare for a potential final against Swiatek.

Line Call: Sabalenka To Win 2-0 (-135)