Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Roland Garros

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Zach Cohen on the right way to play Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

Tennis fans have been waiting a year to see another match-up between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Well, we’re finally going to get one, at Roland Garros on Friday, June 9, when the two best players in the world clash in the semifinals. This contest has everything you can possibly want, and the fact that both have won the most recent majors they played makes it a rare occurrence.

Alcaraz is a -205 favorite to move on to the final in Paris, which might be surprising to some. After all, Djokovic is arguably the greatest player in the history of the sport, and he’s a two-time Roland Garros champion. However, Alcaraz’s price has more to do with his fit on these courts than it does his place in the men’s game. The Spaniard is simply better suited for these slower courts, making it an uphill battle for Djokovic to win this match. But on hard or grass surfaces, things will be a lot more even between these two—and could even lean in Djokovic’s direction.

Considering the way these courts have played at this event, I do think Alcaraz will get the job done. And I think it’ll be a little easier than people think for the 20-year-old. One of the best ways to beat Alcaraz is by absolutely clobbering the ball and making him make quick decisions. But with the dirt significantly slowing down powerful shots, I find it hard to believe that Djokovic will be able to consistently hit for power throughout this match. The Serbian had legitimate injury concerns entering this tournament, and we haven’t exactly seen much of a power game from him thus far. He has undoubtedly had his moments in this tournament, but doing it for long enough to win three out of five sets against the best defensive player in tennis is a whole other challenge.

I also think that Alcaraz’s ability to hit powerful topspin shots will be tough for Djokovic to handle. Rafael Nadal won many matches against Djokovic by hitting high-bouncing forehands that also come with serious speed. Not many players on tour can do it quite like Rafa, but Alcaraz is one of the few that can. And he’ll use that shot to try and make Djokovic hit as many off-balance shots as possible.

It's also very hard to ignore the fact that Alcaraz has a 36.7% break percentage since the start of the 2023 season. Djokovic has had some issues getting easy holds throughout this tournament, which hasn’t been as much of a problem thus far. But he’ll be flirting with disaster if he is giving Alcaraz too many opportunities to break. Djokovic is the best returner in the history of the sport, but Alcaraz will make a run for that claim by the time his career is over.

Overall, I think Alcaraz wraps this semifinal up in four sets, at most. And I think there could be a lopsided set somewhere in there. So, I like him to win this match and cover the 3.5-game spread. But make no mistake about it: Djokovic will the favorite to win if these two play in Wimbledon, where the speed of the courts would give the Serbian a huge boost.

Line Call: Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-122)