World No. 31 Alexander Bublik captured the first ATP tour title of his career last week, as he defeated world No. 3 Alexander Zverev in straight sets in the final at Montpellier. It was a fantastic run for the 24-year-old, but he now has to quickly turn around and face Andy Murray, who looks primed for a big 2022 campaign.
Murray won a title in Rotterdam back in 2009, so he should feel extremely comfortable on this court. We’ve also seen Murray competing at a high level on tour recently, as he made a run all the way to the Sydney final in the middle of January. The three-time major champion ultimately lost to Aslan Karatsev, and he also wore himself down quite a bit by going doing deep in that tournament. The result was Murray running out of gas at the Australian Open, where he lost to Taro Daniel in the second round after a long, five-set match against Nikoloz Basilashvili.
Murray has now had just about a month off to recharge the batteries, so he should be fresh and ready to go in this meeting with Bublik. The 24-year-old is in an interesting spot coming into this tournament. While it might seem as though he has plenty of momentum after taking home the trophy last week, he could also be due for a letdown. Bublik is surely going to be a little tired after playing five matches last week, and any mental fatigue is going to hurt him in a meeting with one of the game’s toughest competitors.
Bublik is also a player that tends to run a little hot, so he might not react well if the crowd starts pulling for Murray. That can manifest itself in a number of different ways, but the likeliest scenario is that Bublik’s serve escapes him at some point. The youngster is known for going big on his second serve, which can occasionally lead to some double-fault heavy stretches. We didn’t see many of them in Montpellier last week, but they can show up at any point. Murray also plays some of the most relentless defense in the world, even at his age, so he'll force Bublik to be consistent, if the Kazakh hopes to prevail.
Overall, it’s just hard to lay off of Murray with such generous odds, even when there’s a strong opponent on the other side of the net. Murray might not look the part of a Top 5 player anymore, but he's hardly playing the role of journeyman, either. We think Murray will rise in the rankings in 2022, and that starts with the Brit taking down Bublik in Rotterdam.
Line Call: Andy Murray To Win (-148)