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Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Andrey Rublev vs. Mackenzie McDonald, ATP Dubai

Rublev came away with a title last week in Marseille, but with this being his seventh match in nine days, fatigue could catch up to the Russian.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Feb 23, 2022

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World No. 7 Andrey Rublev won the ninth ATP title of his career at the Open 13 in Marseille last week, and the Russian is now in the midst of a solid run at the Dubai Tennis Championships. The 24-year-old has already earned wins over world No. 28 Daniel Evans and world No. 60 Soonwoo Kwon at this event. He did, however, give up a set in that match against Kwon, and world No. 61 Mackenzie McDonald could be able to put up a similar fight in the quarterfinals.

McDonald's two victories have been a lot more impressive. He earned straight-set victories over world No. 2 Aslan Karatsev and world No. 44 Filip Krajinovic, and both of those matches were completed in less than two hours. The 26-year-old has been returning serve brilliantly, earning five break-point opportunities against Karatsev and capitalizing on four. He then won 5 of 10 break points he got on Krajinovic’s serve. That’s something to really keep an eye on heading into this meeting with Rublev, who hasn’t been quite as dominant with his serve as we’ve seen in the past.

McDonald beat Rublev in four sets at the 2019 Australian Open.

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It’s entirely possible that Rublev is experiencing a bit of fatigue—understandably so. This will be the seventh match the Russian has played in a span of nine days. That’s a lot of tennis for anyone to be playing, even somebody as young and talented as Rublev.

McDonald doesn’t blow you away with any of his shots, but the American does possess an elite set of wheels. He’s going to run down absolutely everything, and that will force Rublev to play a lot of extra balls. That could end up being a bit frustrating for the Russian, especially when you consider that McDonald also has a pretty sturdy game from the baseline. If there are any signs of Rublev being less than 100 percent in this match, McDonald will take advantage.

Ultimately, Rublev is the better player in this match-up, and he should go on to make it to the semifinals here. But this match isn’t going to be a walk in the park for the Russian, who is a -330 favorite to win. You could go with the Over on the game total in this one, but you’d have take that at -145 odds. That’s not quite as appealing as rolling with the -118 on McDonald to win a set, which is a very similar bet.

Line Call: McDonald To Win A Set (-118)

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