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On Tuesday, world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka will take on world No. 37 Alize Cornet at the Qatar TotalEnergies Open in Doha. Sabalenka enters this contest off an opening-round bye, while Cornet earned a tough 3-6, 6-4, 7-5 victory over world No. 34 Liudmila Samsonova. The Frenchwoman was a wild-card entry into this tournament, but make no mistake about it: she deserves to be in this field.

Cornet has already picked up five victories early on in 2022, and two of them came against Garbine Muguruza and Simona Halep at the Australian Open. With that in mind, the 32-year-old is no stranger to raising her level when it comes to playing against the best players on the planet. It’s also a bit of a stretch to consider Sabalenka an elite player at the moment. The Belarusian still possesses world-class groundstrokes, but her serving troubles have made her more beatable than ever.

Sabalenka deserves a lot of credit for continuing to play through those struggles, but the 23-year-old is just 4-4 this year. Three of her four wins have gone to a deciding set, and two them came against opponents that aren’t even in the Top 90.

Sabalenka and Cornet have split wins in their two career meetings.

Sabalenka and Cornet have split wins in their two career meetings. 

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Sabalenka has been gifting her opponents opportunities; she is averaging an astonishing 13.8 double faults per match over her last eight. Until she gets that number down to five or fewer, it’s going to be hard to trust her to hold it together with the ball on her racquet. Fading the Belarusian has been a profitable proposition because of those concerns, and we’re going to go right back to it here.

Cornet might not ultimately beat Sabalenka in Doha, but she doesn’t have to in order for you to make some money. Cornet’s +210 odds to win this match show you how big of a long shot she is to advance, but she’s listed at -132 to just win a single set. Considering how many break-point opportunities she should see in this match, that’s just a really good value on such a sturdy player. It also doesn’t hurt that Cornet is the type of player that likes to sit back and redirect her opponent’s pace. That counterpunching mentality suits her perfectly against Sabalenka, who aims to crush the ball every time she swings.

Line Call: Cornet To Win A Set (-132)