Betting Central

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Bianca Andreescu vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Stuttgart

It's been quite some time since we last saw Andreescu in a big match, but Sabalenka's service woes should give the Canadian a chance to keep this close.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Apr 20, 2022

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World No. 121 Bianca Andreescu will look to begin climbing the WTA rankings again when she faces world No. 4 Aryna Sabalenka on Thursday in Stuttgart. The Canadian is a lot better than her ranking suggests, as she is a former world No. 4 and won the US Open less than three years ago. Injuries have caused the talented 21-year-old to slide in the rankings; this is her first tournament since the 2021 US Open, but it was encouraging to see the way she finished her match against Jule Niemeier on Tuesday.

Andreescu earned a 7-6 (5), 6-3 win over the German wild card in that match, but that second set reminded everyone just how good she can be. All of her service games were relatively straightforward, and she finally started to get in a groove as a returner. That’s important as she heads into a meeting with Sabalenka, as Andreescu will look to capitalize on her opponent’s often flimsy serve.

This won't be a typical collision between a player ranked in the Top 5 against a player outside the Top 100.

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While Sabalenka is still one of the best players on the WTA tour, the 23-year-old is still having trouble getting her serves into play. There have been plenty of times this season in which it has looked like Sabalenka was putting those problems behind her, but she had 10 double faults in her loss to Amanda Anisimova in Charleston two weeks ago. That came after the Belarusian racked up eight double faults in a win over Alison Riske in her opening match at that event.

If Sabalenka is double faulting against Andreescu, it’s hard to imagine the Canadian not winning at least one set here. The Belarusian needs all the free points she can get on her serve, so she certainly can’t afford to be gifting her opponent free points. And even if Sabalenka dials back her serve in hopes of landing more deliveries, Andreescu can take advantage of the slower pace right away. This match-up might be one in which Sabalenka is in better shape, but that edge won’t mean much if she’s constantly giving Andreescu chances to break serve.

Overall, it isn’t hard to envision a scenario in which Andreescu actually wins this one outright as a +194 underdog, but we’re taking the safer play and just backing her to win a set. She’s one of the few players in the world that can match Sabalenka’s ball-striking ability, even after extended time off.

Line Call: Andreescu To Win A Set (-138)

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