Carlos Alcaraz avenged his Indian Wells defeat to Andy Murray on Wednesday in Vienna. It was a phenomenal match, much closer than the 6-3, 6-4 scoreline would indicate. The first three games of the encounter took over 30 minutes, with the Spaniard’s pace and movement ultimately suffocating the former world No. 1.

Alcaraz will now face Matteo Berrettini for a spot in his first ATP semifinal on indoor hard court. In fact, this is the Spaniard’s first ever ATP tournament on indoor hard court, but you wouldn’t know it judging by his impressive straight-set wins over Dan Evans and Murray.

Just 18 years old, Alcaraz is a certified freak of nature. In the post-match press conference, Murray commented on Alcaraz’s incredible speed and power.

“He hits the ball really hard,” Murray said. “From a physical perspective he’s unbelievably strong. It wouldn’t surprise me if he did really well in a slam and was able to win long five-set matches. I’d say that’s the thing that stands out most, physically he seems very, very strong.”


Alcaraz avenged his recent defeat to Murray at Indian Wells.

Alcaraz avenged his recent defeat to Murray at Indian Wells. 

The weakest aspect of the ever-improving Alcaraz game is undoubtedly his serve. If the Spaniard is unable to earn free points on serve against Berrettini, he will be in a lot of trouble. That said, a +200 price on a player seemed destined for the top spot in the ATP rankings in the coming years is too good too pass up.

Berrettini has looked shaky ever since his quarterfinal defeat to Novak Djokovic at the US Open, losing handily to Taylor Fritz and Indian Wells and scraping by Alexei Popyrin and Nikoloz Basilashvili in his first two rounds in Vienna. The Alcaraz crosscourt backhand went toe to toe with Murray’s, and should dominate Berrettiniti’s provided he makes a high percentage of first serves.

Bottom line: you won’t see Alcaraz as a +200 underdog many more times in his career, so definitely take his +2.5 game spread at +106 and consider a play on his moneyline as well.