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Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Zhang Shuai vs. Claire Liu, Charleston

Zhang seems like she should be a significant favorite, but Liu is actually the more productive clay-courter.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Apr 06, 2022

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On Wednesday, world No. 41 Zhang Shuai will take on world No. 89 Claire Liu at the Credit One Charleston Open. Zhang earned a win over qualifier Francesca Di Lorenzo in the opening round of this event, 6-2, 6-4 in an hour and 24 minutes. Meanwhile, Liu defeated world No. 105 Heather Watson, 6-4, 6-2, in an hour and 21 minutes in her first-rounder. Now, these two will battle it out for what would be a big win for either one of them.

This is a match that looks like a trap from the oddsmakers, as Liu is favored despite being nearly 50 spots lower in the rankings and just 4-6 in her last 10 matches. Meanwhile, Zhang is 10-3 in her last 13 matches and would appear to be a player on the brink of cracking the Top 25. The reality is, the books want you to see all of that and jump on Zhang, but it’s important to dig a little deeper.

Liu was the runner-up in singles in the French Open juniors event in 2017.

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For all of Liu’s struggles to start the season, it's not hard to envision the 21-year-old really turning things around now that we’re playing on the dirt. Last year, Liu was an impressive 18-4 when playing on clay. Not all of those matches were played at the WTA level, but it still goes to show a level of comfort when playing on this surface. One thing that really stands out is Liu's ability to give opposing servers trouble. Liu converted on four of her seven break-point opportunities in her win over Watson last match, and she should be able to get into Zhang’s service games as well.

Zhang, meanwhile, happens to be coming off of a pretty rough clay season in 2021. The 33-year-old was just 4-8 when playing on the dirt last season, and none of her victories were all that impressive. Her best, from a rankings perspective, was a 7-5, 6-4 win over world No. 94 Misaki Doi, who was just 3-7 in clay-court matches herself last year.

Overall, it’s just hard to believe in Zhang on this surface, even if she looks like the better player on paper. With that, we’re taking a shot and going with the contrarian pick, which is Liu to win as a slight moneyline favorite.

Line Call: Liu To Win (-132)

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