Betting Central

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: David Goffin vs. Diego Schwartzman, Antwerp

Schwartzman is the higher-ranked player, but the Belgian has a slight edge in form—and will be playing in front of his people.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Oct 20, 2022

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On Thursday, world No. 58 David Goffin will faceworld No. 19 Diego Schwartzman with a spot in the quarterfinals of the European Open on the line. This tournament is being played in Belgium, which means that Goffin will have the crowd decidedly in his favor. In a match-up that has already favored the 31-year-old in the past, the hometown boost should give the Belgian even more of an edge here.

As solid as Schwartzman is, he hasn't showed that of late. The Argentine hasn’t won a match since defeating Alexei Popyrin in the second round of the US Open, and that was back on September 3. It has been over a month since the 30-year-old has tasted victory, while Goffin has won five matches in that span.

Goffin also had the luxury of getting his feet wet in this event, as he defeated Gilles Arnaud Bailly in his opening match. Goffin was far from impressive in that performance, but he was still able to come away with a win and get himself comfortable with match play before taking on a tough opponent. Now, the Belgian will look to win his third tour-level match in a row in this head-to-head series.

This is just a perfect opportunity to back Goffin, as the location, current form and head-to-head history all point towards this being a win for the Belgian.

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Schwartzman actually beat Goffin at this very event back in 2016, but since then, Goffin is 3-0 in against Schwartzman (including a Laver Cup match in 2018. But none of those matches were recent enough to take precedence over current form. And while Goffin’s isn’t perfect right now, it’s Schwartzman that is in a worse way at the moment.

Schwartzman’s 56.4% win percentage in the 2022 season would be the worst mark he’s posted since 2018, and his 70.2% hold percentage is a big part of that. That’s the lowest rate at which Schwartzman has held since back in 2015, and he’s just not going to have many opportunities to defeat decent players if he’s struggling that mightily on his own serve. It also doesn’t help that Goffin has the baseline prowess required to win long rallies against Schwartzman, which isn’t the case for many players on tour.

This is just a perfect opportunity to back Goffin, as the location, current form and head-to-head history all point towards this being a win for the Belgian. We’re backing him as a small underdog in this spot.

Line Call: Goffin To Win (-106)

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