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Back in February, Daniil Medvedev began his run of winning three consecutive titles by defeating Jannik Sinner in the Rotterdam final. Sinner took the first set in that match, but it was Medvedev that came away with a 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 victory. Now, Sinner will be looking for revenge when the two clash in the Miami Open final on Sunday, April 2nd. And the Italian is fresh off a win over Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals, so his confidence is at an all-time high right now.

Sinner was asked about that February loss to Medvedev after his win over Alcaraz, and the Italian said that he’s not too worried about it. He noted that these are very different conditions, and that’s big reason why we like the 21-year-old to come away with the win here. Rotterdam is an indoor hard-court event, while this is an outdoor tournament in Florida. It can get very humid in Miami, and Medvedev has had trouble dealing with humidity in his career. When you combine that with the fact that Medvedev is likely already exhausted from having played five consecutive finals, Sinner should be in much better shape physically here.

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Sinner is also going to have the support of the Miami crowd. The 21-year-old has created quite the bond with the fans in Miami, which seemingly started when the Italian came back to beat Pablo Carreno Busta in last year’s Round of 32. Medvedev doesn’t exactly like when crowds aren’t in his corner, so he could be going through it both physically and mentally here.

Sinner is also just playing some of the best tennis of his life coming into this match. Like Medvedev, Sinner made it to the semifinals of both events in the Sunshine Double. And this season has just been full of lengthy runs for the 21-year-old. He just must find a way to break through. Sinner did win the Open Sud de France in the middle of February, but he has never won a Masters 1000. Meanwhile, Medvedev has won four of them. With that said, there will be a little more motivation on the Italian’s side here.

Medvedev is one of the great defenders in the sport, but Sinner is no slouch when it comes to court coverage. But the Italian packs a little more punch with his groundstrokes. He is also a great returner, as he uses his long limbs to just get balls deep and back in play. So, if he’s serving well, he should find a way into some of Medvedev’s service games. And we trust him to come through in some of those, which will ultimately result in him picking up the biggest win of his career.

Bet: Sinner ML (+105)