Madrid Men's Final Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

WATCH: Tennis Channel Live previews the men's final in Madrid between Carlos Alcaraz and Jan-Lennard Struff.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

Struff, as far as I know, wasn’t anyone’s pick to make this final. In fact, this lucky loser wasn’t even supposed to be in the tournament, after losing in the qualifying to Aslan Karatsev. He probably wasn’t the first choice of tournament officials to make it this far, either. The world No. 65 plays a powerful game, but he hardly qualifies as a major drawing card.

What Struff may be, though, is one of the few guys who can make a match with Alcaraz, on this court, competitive. The German has played the Spaniard twice and has acquitted himself exceptionally well both times. In fact, taking the two matches together, he may have been the better overall player. He won their first meeting at Roland Garros in 2021, in straight sets, and he was up two sets to one in their second meeting, at Wimbledon in 2022, before losing in five.

That’s not a huge sample size, of course, and the 2021 match was just before Alcaraz began his climb to No. 1 in earnest. But it’s still worth wondering: How has Struff succeeded where so many others have failed, especially in his early 30s?

The easiest answer is that he has first-strike power. He has a big serve and a bigger forehand, he hits a heavy ball off both wings, and he doesn’t have a problem moving forward. Alcaraz doesn’t often have to deal with players who have the potential to take the initiative away from him, or keep him from having time to set up. Struff at his best can do that.

The fact that Struff’s last five wins in Madrid have come in three sets is a double-edged sword. On the minus side, he’s put in a lot of road work this week, a good deal more than Alcaraz. On the plus side, though, he’s won enough close sets and tiebreakers, and bounced back from enough first-set losses, that he should feel confident he can come back again, even in this match.

All of that said, of course, Alcaraz is still the solid favorite. Struff hits big, but nobody plays bigger, or quicker, than the Spaniard these days, and nobody owns the Caja Magica like he does. Winner: Alcaraz