Madrid Open Betting Preview: Casper Ruud vs. Daniil Medvedev

I thought Taylor Fritz had a real shot to beat Casper Ruud in the Round of 16 at the Mutua Madrid Open. But the American wasn’t hitting spots with his serve, and TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations showed it was also an off day for him on the forehand wing. That won’t cut it against Ruud, who is a Top 5 player in the world on this surface.

Well, now we’ll hope that Ruud doesn’t burn us again. Only this time we’ll be backing him, as he should be able to beat Daniil Medvedev on the dirt.

Medvedev is unbeaten in three career meetings with Ruud, and he hasn’t even dropped a set against the Norwegian. But this will be their first career meeting on clay, where Medvedev is nothing more than an above-average player—and that may be generous. Meanwhile, Ruud is a two-time French Open runner-up, and most of his best results have come on the dirt. These two also haven’t played since 2021, which is pretty significant. Medvedev is much worse than he was four years ago, especially as a server. Meanwhile, Ruud continues to get better and better.

With Medvedev no longer an elite server, it’s hard to picture what he can do to really make Ruud uncomfortable on clay. Obviously, Medvedev is going to try his best to extend rallies and get some errors out of Ruud. But the Russian isn’t quite as good as he once was as a defensive player. Also, Ruud’s heavy topspin forehand is going to push Medvedev a little further from the baseline than he’d like—plus, it’s going to get up high and make things uncomfortable for him on both wings. I actually think Medvedev’s backhand, which is normally a huge strength, could be a problem for him in this match. He likes to hit it low and flat, but Ruud’s going to make it hard for him to do that.

Ruud is also a better server than he is given credit for, and he’s even more dangerous on altitude clay. Not only will he serve up a good amount of unreturnables, but a lot of his serves will also come back short in the court and allow him to pummel plus-one forehands.

It’s also hard to ignore the movement battle here. Medvedev is one of the best movers on the planet on hard courts, but he’s a bit awkward on clay. So even though the conditions in Madrid are a little more favorable for him, his footwork could cause him some problems against Ruud. The Norwegian is as smooth as they come when it comes to moving on clay. He effortlessly gets in and out of corners, and it seems like he’s always in a position to run around his backhand to blast a forehand.

Considering all of the above, it’s hard to lay off Ruud on the moneyline. You’re going to have to deal with a juiced number, but it’s juiced for a reason.

Pick: Ruud ML (-162)