Madrid Open Betting Preview: Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper

Casper Ruud has never won a 1000-level title, but he’ll have a shot at it when he takes on Jack Draper in the Mutua Madrid Open final on Sunday. The good news for Ruud is that he’ll be doing so on his preferred surface. Ruud’s lone career ATP 500 title came in Barcelona, and he is a two-time runner-up at Roland Garros. The bad news is that Ruud is running into one of the hottest players on tour. Draper is 19-4 this season, won his first Masters event at Indian Wells and just seems to have everything working right now. On top of that, Ruud picked up a minor injury right before his semifinal match against Francisco Cerundolo, and he said that it was significant enough that he wasn’t sure he’d finish that contest. Considering all of that, it’s hard not to view this as an uphill battle for the Norwegian. So, I’m laying 2.5 games with the Brit.

If Ruud is 100% healthy for this match, he could take a page out of Lorenzo Musetti's book. Last round, we saw the Italian keep himself in the match by targeting Draper’s forehand. With Ruud’s ability to generate heavy topspin on his own forehand, he could look to get the ball up super high and try to make Draper uncomfortable. The problem is that Ruud doesn’t really have many other things he can go to.

When Ruud goes cross court to Draper’s backhand, he’ll be hitting to one of the most dangerous shots in tennis. Draper, a natural righty, goes extremely big from the backhand wing, and he hits it deep in the court. Also, while Draper’s forehand is the attackable side of the court, it’s hardly a weakness. That’s the shot that won him the BNP Paribas Open. He hits it with a lot of spin, pushing opponents all around the court and getting them far away from the baseline so that he can find angles or hit drop shots to win points.

Draper is also a better server than Ruud by a pretty wide margin, and his returning has been remarkable all season long. That said, Draper is going to be a nightmare for Ruud to play against.

The only thing I’m a little nervous about is Draper holding up physically. Musetti was moving him side to side in their semifinal, and I would have liked the Italian’s chances of outlasting the Brit if that went to a decider. Ruud will likely try and do his best to deploy a similar strategy. Draper’s conditioning really hasn’t been an issue in 2025. But with Ruud not having many other buttons to press, he might look to out-work him. I just don’t think that’ll work.

PIck: Draper -2.5 Games (-125) .