Madrid Open Betting Preview: Francisco Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud

On Friday, May 2, Francisco Cerundolo and Casper Ruud will play for a spot in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open. This is a massive match for both players, as neither has won a 1000-level event. That definitely weighs a little more on Ruud, who is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up and has been a mainstay in the Top 10. But Cerundolo has also been knocking on the door of Masters glory, so he surely wants a taste of it.

Only one's journey will continue, and I tend to think it’ll be the Argentine.

A little over a month ago, we saw Cerundolo earn a straightforward 6-4, 6-2 win over Ruud in Miami. Yet, clay is the the surface that has brought Ruud most of the big moments in his career. But Cerundolo is 5-3 in their eight meetings, and two of those wins have come on clay.

Cerundolo is also in better form. Only six players have won more matches than him in the last 52 weeks, and his consistency has been off the charts since the start of 2025. Cerundolo’s best level has always been good enough for him to compete with the top players on tour, but his game would always come and go. Now, he is working himself deeper and deeper into big events. A lot of that has to do with him cutting down on some of the big mistakes he used to make in rallies, which normally came in the form of over-hitting balls. He’s also serving a lot better in 2025, and his already-stellar returning has improved.

Cerundolo also has one of the biggest forehands on tour, and he generates pace effortlessly from that side of the court. That’s what’s interesting in this matchup, as Ruud normally has a big advantage from that wing. That’s not the case here. Cerundolo’s backhand has also been much more reliable than Ruud’s in Madrid, meaning the Argentine could have an edge on both wings.

The only thing Ruud definitively does better than Cerundolo is serve. He’s also a little better when it comes to point construction. But Ruud isn't perfect with the ball on his racquet, and Cerundolo will take advantage if the Norwegian gives him enough. Also, while Ruud is a natural on clay, so is Cerundolo. So, the advantage in movement that Ruud had over some of his previous opponents won’t be there.

If Ruud was playing a little better to start the 2025 season, I probably would have given him a better shot here. But Ruud stumbled into clay-court season, so I’m not quite ready to put a lot of trust in him. Maybe if this was a best-of-five match, Ruud would be able to outlast Cerundolo with his superior ability to figure opponents out and make adjustments. But in a best-of-three- sprint, I think Cerundolo will smack the ball around and give Ruud some trouble.

Pick: Cerundolo ML (+100)