Madrid Open Betting Preview: Mirra Andreeva vs. Coco Gauff

It doesn’t get much better than a meeting between Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff, especially in a quarterfinal. In winning the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and BNP Paribas Open back to back, Andreeva stole Gauff’s spot as the top young star on the WTA Tour. Surely, the American will want to turn the tables.

But while Gauff has looked great in Madrid thus far, the fact that her game can fall off a cliff at any moment is a little unsettling. So, I’m backing Andreeva as a small moneyline favorite.

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Gauff really hasn’t done anything wrong since arriving in Spain. Outside of getting bageled in the first set she played against Dayana Yastremska, we have seen nothing but the very best version of her. The 21-year-old has won six consecutive sets, has made at least 73.3% of her first serves in back-to-back matches, and double faults weren’t a problem in a 6-4, 6-2 win over Belinda Bencic. The problem is that Gauff still has a career-high double fault percentage (9.2%) in 2025, and that type of issue is a mental one that can rear its ugly head at any point in a match. You also have to be rock-solid from the baseline in order to beat Andreeva, and Gauff’s forehand is still very difficult to trust.

Andreeva hasn’t been perfect over the last few weeks. The just-turned 18-year-old looked physically drained in Miami, where she lost to Amanda Anisimova in the Round of 32. Then, she got demolished in a straight-set loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova in Stuttgart. But Andreeva hasn’t dropped a set in Madrid, and she’s starting to look confident again. That’s trouble for everybody that’s left in the draw.

This feels like a match in which we’re going to see a ton of long rallies, and it’s hard not to like Andreeva to get the better of Gauff in those. The Russian just doesn’t make as many mistakes, and she’s one of the few players in the world with the ability to hold up against Coco from the backhand wing. Andreeva’s serve is also a lot more reliable than Gauff’s—which feels crazy to say at this point in her career. Last year, Andreeva's serve was one of the things that was holding her back, but she has turned it into a weapon in 2025.

Of course, it should be noted that Gauff is 2-0 against Andreeva in this head-to-head series. However, they haven’t played since 2023, and it was the 2024 season in which Andreeva really became Andreeva. I expect this to be a rivalry that goes Andreeva’s way, though I can see Gauff having some success when they meet on U.S. soil. Gauff takes her game to another level in front of American crowds.

But it's Andreeva's turn on Wednesday.

Pick: Andreeva ML (-125)