Did you think Carlos Alcaraz would have a letdown after beating Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic? Not a chance

With so many seeds falling early in Madrid, there were bound to be opportunities for other players to go farther at a major event than they ever had before. That’s what will happen on Saturday: Jabeur and Pegula will both be contesting their first WTA 1000 final.

Yet this isn’t the random or completely surprising title match that might have seemed possible a few days ago. Jabeur is ranked 10th, Pegula 14th. Each has made a couple of Grand Slam quarterfinals, and has a title to her name. Jabeur is 27 and Pegula 28, so they’ve paid their dues and gradually made improvements to their games. A run at a tournament like this was the next step for both.

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The pair's head-to-head stands at 2-2; Pegula won the first two meetings, Jabeur the last two.

Who will take the final step and win the biggest title of her career? Their head-to-head stands at 2-2; Pegula won the first two meetings, Jabeur the last two, including one earlier this year in Dubai. They’ve never played on clay before. Pegula has the steadier, more workmanlike game; Jabeur has more shot-making flash and variation. In general, it would seem like Pegula’s style is more easily reproduced under heightened pressure, and Jabeur does have a tendency toward streakiness.

But Jabeur has defied expectations and elevated her game all week. She beat Belinda Bencic after losing to her in Charleston last month. She beat Simona Halep after losing to her earlier this season. She beat Ekaterina Alexandrova after going 1-6 in their first seven meetings. “I’m still really looking forward to what I can bring,” Jabeur says of her outlook on the future. On Saturday, she’ll get a chance to see.

Winner: Jabeur

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