Call it an outro: Rather than winding up to a grand finale, the way most sports do, tennis, its dramatic peaks mostly past, goes out on a quiet, thrumming note. The clay Masters events of spring lead to the French Open; the summer hard-court Masters lead to the U.S. Open; the fall indoor versions lead to the Masters Cup, a great showcase to be sure, but not quite a Grand one.
The quiet season on the men’s side opens on Monday in Madrid. There are a lot of good players along for the ride—pretty much of all of them, as far as I can tell—but not much overarching drama. Roger Federer, after vacillating, will play. So will Rafael Nadal, but he’s far ahead in their race for the year-end No. 1. David Nalbandian says he’ll be there to defend his title, but in body only, since he’s already written off the Masters Cup in favor of the Davis Cup final in Argentina. The most intriguing stories may come from Juan Martin Del Potro, who is continuing his drive to the season-ender—unlike his countryman, this Argentine wants to go to Shanghai—and Andy Murray, who will be playing his first ATP event since reaching the final of the U.S. Open.
So the stakes are moderately high at best. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing—the pain and tension shouldn’t be too high for us fans, either. The final indoor version of Madrid will be a chance to watch the best players begin winding the season down for us.
First Quarter
Rafael Nadal, the first seed, always wants to win for the Spanish fans, so much so that he seems to have put too much pressure on himself the last two years, when he lost in the quarterfinals each time. His toughest matches this year may be his earliest. He’ll open against the winner of Ernests Gulbis-Nicolas Kiefer, and then could see Richard Gasquet in the round after that. The other half of this section is led by David Ferrer, another Spaniard who can play on hard courts and will also be up for this one. His toughest competition might come from Stanislas Wawrinka, who has had success indoors in the past and should be the next of the Next generation to win his first Masters event. Still, I think Nadal, who should finally be rested, is safe: Gulbis has the firepower but not the consistency yet; Ferrer has the consistency but not the firepower.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Second Quarter
This is the time of year when Novak Djokovic began to flag last year. It began in the semis in Madrid, when he was beaten in straight sets by Nalbandian. After that, Djokovic would lose in the first round in Paris and then lose all three of his matches in straight sets in Shanghai. The Serb doesn’t have an enjoyable road to a semifinal showdown with Nadal this time. First might be Dmitry Tursunov, second Ivo Karlovic. On the other side are Nikolay Davydenko, James Blake, and deep down there, holdng onto a wild card, Marat Safin, who beat Davydenko this week and could face him again the second round. I’m not sure what Djokovic’s state of mind will be coming in this time. He does have an incentive, because it’s possible for him to catch Federer for No. 2 at the end of the year. Maybe it will be enough to keep him going.
Semifinals: Djokovic
Third Quarter
Andy Murray, at No. 4 in the world, gets to headline his own Masters quarter this time, a symbolic moment of increased pressure if there ever was one. It’s also an opportunity—now he can’t face the big three before the semis. But I wouldn’t describe Murray’s draw as an easy one. Andy Roddick, Fernando Gonzalez, and Gael Monfils are together on the other side, while there are two sleepers on his own side: Nicolas Almagro of Spain, who beat Murray at the French Open, and Marin Cilic, who has all the makings of a force indoors. But while those guys are dangerous, and Roddick and Monfils have been playing well, Murray has earned his top-four status and seems ready to embrace it.
Semifinalist: Murray
Fourth Quarter
Roger Federer dropped out of Stockholm last week, talked about withdrawing from Madrid, and even hinted that he could pull the plug on the whole season. He may still be suffering some effects of mono, or just unwilling to risk the stress at this point of the year. All of which means he’ll likely come in with slightly diminished expectations. All of which may allow him to play some very good tennis.
The same may be true for the second seed here, Nalbandian. Since announcing his ambivalence about the rest of the ATP schedule, he has had one of his few good results of 2008, reaching the final in Stockholm—nobody’s tougher when the stakes are moderate than David Nalbandian. But here he might have to get past his countryman, Del Potro. The younger Argentine has been injured and must be at least a little tired after his four-month tear through the tour, but he says he’ll keep driving toward Shanghai. While Del Potro has proven he can play on clay and outdoor hard courts, like Cilic his height should eventually work to his advantage indoors as well. And so far this year, just when you think he’s going to run out of gas or have a letdown, he hasn’t.
Sleeper: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He won in Bangkok, then came up injured. If he can stay healthy…
Semifinalist: Del Potro
**Semifinals: Nadal d. Djokovic; Murray d. Del Potro
Final: Nadal d. Murray**