!PicMIAMI—Well, the Miami Menu has been so reduced that it could now pass for the senior citizen special (all-inclusive) offered between 3 PM and 6 PM, which roughly coincides to the time that the first and more intriguing of the two men’s semifinals will be decided. So let’s take them in order, starting with the afternoon feature:
Rafael Nadal (No. 2) vs. Andy Murray (No. 4): Murray finally salted away a win over Nadal in the Tokyo final last fall on a hard court, after absorbing five consecutive losses to Rafa—the three most recent of those in Grand Slam semifinals. Can he build on that momentum and add a win to his 5-13 head-to-head deficit?
Some of that will depend on what Nadal brings to the table, and these days we’re not entirely sure what is. Does anyone else feel that this recent streak of discontent, manifested in so many small ways and complaints, is somehow symptomatic of a mild decline in Nadal’s day-to-day enthusiasm? The theory is neatly summed up in the fact that Nadal hasn’t won a tournament since the French Open, ten long months ago.
If there’s going to be an upset today, it will be in this match. But I'm not running around predicting it.
Novak Djokovic (No. 1) vs. Juan Monaco (No. 21): The surprise guest in the semis is Monaco. That's him, making a great catch at the wall in deep centerfield in the exhibition game between the Vero Beach Fish and the Tandil Gauchos. You know that he’s playing with house money and happy just to be in his position. That made him particularly dangerous for his last opponent, No. 8 seed Mardy Fish, for whom facing Monaco instead of, say, Djokovic, was both a great opportunity and an anxiety-inducing one.
Djokovic, though, seems beyond such concerns. He’s comfortable having that target on his back, and he came through (albeit not without some struggle) against a very determined David Ferrer last night in straight sets.
Monaco is a standard-issue, solid ATP pro who celebrated his 28th birthday along with his win over Fish yesterday. Although he’s a baseliner who prefers clay, Monaco has been to just one other Masters semifinal, Shanghai, two years ago, and that also was on hard courts. The only statistic that might set off alarm bells in Nole's head is the fact that Monaco leads the tournament in return-games won (17 of 33, for 52 percent). But I still can't imagine him handling the baseline power of Djokovic on a point-to-point basis.
Unless Murray can play spoiler again, it looks like we may have another dose of Djokovic vs. Nadal in a big final come Sunday.