!Picby Pete Bodo
MIAMI—Scene: Driving across the Rickenbacker Causeway, a git-flash Audi R8 Spyder convertible blew by me right after the toll. The driver, dressed like a Rafa-clone, was talking and gesturing to his wife or girlfriend, rolling along in the fast lane with his left-turn blinker flashing all the while.
I couldn’t resist nosing up behind him and flashing my lights; he gunned it and pulled away. But as we approached a light later, I pulled up beside him (his turn signal was still blinking). Lowering the window on my rented Nissan Versa, I winked at his visor-wearing companion and called out, “What’d yours set you back?”
The guy just looked at me as if I were from Mars. I grinned, and could just imagine what he thought.
Anyway, I had no trouble coming up with my four selections today, now that the the tournament has introduced its minimalist menu:
Maria Sharapova (No. 2) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (No. 4): Wozniacki is looking to reach a final for the first time since the New Haven tournament of 2011. She hasn’t beaten anyone ranked higher than No. 11 Serena Williams so far this year, and that was just two nights ago. So Wozniacki is carrying a fair amount of momentum into this match, and she’ll need every bit of it.
Sharapova, who leads their head-to-head 3-2, is the most consistent performer left in the field; she’s 17-3 this year and has been to at least the semis in three of her four tournaments. A three-time runner-up in Miami, I guarantee you she’s well aware that Victoria Azarenka is out of her way, along with Serena Williams and even Petra Kvitova.
This is Sharapova's tournament to lose, and I’m thinking her opportunism, mental toughness, and suddenly dangerous ground game will see her through.
Mardy Fish (No. 8) vs. Juan Monaco (No. 21): I guess they couldn’t put this one on the Grandstand, where Fish has been relegated for most of this tournament (much to his displeasure), it being a quarterfinal and all. But that will only increase the pressure on the American to stand and deliver.
Monaco is an archetypal “surprise quarterfinalist,” and while that breed doesn’t often punch through to win the tournament, its representatives can give higher-ranked opponents fits. Even if you disregard the troubles Fish has had for most of this year, at this stage of an event he’s usually not subject to pressure. But as the clear favorite over Monaco, he’s going to be feeling the heat of expectations.
The 2-2 head-to-head record is deceptive, because Fish retired in the third set of the most recent win by Monaco (Paris Indoors, 2011), and they've only played one other match since spring 2006 (a win by Monaco, on clay, in Duesseldorf). But Fish is tasting success again after months of frustration, and he’s enough of a veteran to know that as tricky an assignment as Monaco is, it sure beats facing a Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. So I think he'll manage the pressure and come through, much like he did yesterday against the considerably more dangerous Nicolas Almagro.
Agnieszka Radwanska (No. 5) vs. Marion Bartoli (No. 7): Bartoli pulled off the upset that rocked the WTA last night, bouncing Victoria Azarenka in a battle of power baseliners. But today she’ll be up against a crafty defensive player whose specialty is counter-punching and retrieving. And that’s an entirely different assignment—one which Bartoli hasn’t been able to complete successfully in six attempts against Radwanska.
This is an appealing match-up, with a power player who loves to take the ball on the rise (Bartoli) against a player who knows how to take pace off the ball and use the power of her opponents to her own advantage. I’m not convinced that Bartoli will be ready for such a different mission so soon after blasting through Azarenka, but the confidence gained in that match ought to be out-weigh her 0-6 mark against Aggie. This is the upset special of the day.
Novak Djokovic (No. 1) vs. David Ferrer (No. 5): Forget about it, everyone—including Ferrer—knows that he’s the doorman of champions. He doesn’t stand a chance.
Or does he? You could forgive Rafael Nadal for experiencing a twinge of envy when he regards the head-to-head in this one: Djokovic leads by a narrow 7-5. Ferrer’s specialty is getting out of the road traveled by the Big Four come semifinals day, but there’s a marking-time quality to Djokovic’s game and attitude these days. Even though he’s top-seeded and the defending champ, I don’t see anything like the resolve and urgency that drove him last year.
Djokovic needs to be very, very careful. But the lickings he gave Ferrer in their last few hard court encounters rules out calling for the upset.