How much of an advantage is it to serve first in the final set? It's debatable. To Rafael Nadal tonight, it seemed pretty darn important. Down 0-40 after an error-filled second set, Nadal offered Tomas Berdych triple break point and a chance to take his first lead of the match with some more suspect shotmaking. But Nadal still had one thing he could rely on, even if it hadn't been clicking up to this point—the ability to serve. After getting to 15-40, the world No. 1 struck three pinpoint aces to claim advantage, then took the tone-setting game, keeping Berdych chasing him, rather than the other way around. His serve wouldn't fail him again, as Nadal won five of the next eight games to win, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, setting up the semifinal most everyone wanted, against Roger Federer.
After the opening set of tonight's quarterfinal, we all expected that outcome, but how it unfolded was a surprise. Nadal was at his vintage—a young vintage, it should be said—best in the first set, hitting every ball with precise power and placement. Berdych was helpless and totally outclassed; he couldn't even hold serve reliably, dropping his first two service games. Nadal wasn't going to advance as easily as Federer did earlier today, when he won in 10 minutes, but he wasn't making it look that much more difficult.
But the seemingly predestined path of the match changed abruptly, due to both men. Berdych worked on the shot he had control over—his serve—forcing Nadal to keep his high standard of play intact. He didn't. Errors started to come, but it wasn't until the end of the set when it appeared Berdych may have finally discovered the rest of his game—you know, the one that knocked a top seed out of Miami last year in a third set.
That's what made the first game of the third set so critical for Nadal—Berdych had become that feared hitter, once again. The gutsy hold emboldened Nadal; he became a feared hitter again, too. And all things being equal, Nadal is going to win when him and his opponent are both at their best. Whether that holds true against his next opponent remains to be seen—all we can hope for is that we have a chance to find out.
—Ed McGrogan