Miami Semifinal Previews: Sinner seeks revenge against Alcaraz; veterans Kvitova and Cirstea collide

UPDATE: Medvedev beats Khachanov in three sets to reach final

Daniil Medvedev vs. Karen Khachanov

These two are fellow Russians of roughly the same vintage. Khachanov is 26, Medvedev 27. They’ve played against each other, and together on various national teams, for years. But they don’t have a lot of head-to-head history as pros. They’ve played four times, but only once since 2019. Medvedev has won three of those matches, including the most recent, by a routine 6-3, 6-3 scoreline in Adelaide.

Each has done more interesting things since then. Medvedev went on a 20-match win streak, and has won 23 of his last 24. While it may be somewhat forgotten right now, Khachanov had a run of his own in 2023, to the Australian Open semifinals. Since then, he has mostly muddled along; but in knocking off Jiri Lehecka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Francisco Cerundolo in Miami, he has played with the same low-key resolve that he showed in Melbourne.

Khachanov has the serve and ground strokes to do damage against Medvedev. But does he have the volley? That shot has become a key to countering Medvedev’s deep court position, and it’s not a specialty of Khachanov’s. Medvedev surely wants another crack at Carlos Alcaraz in the final here, and he needs to win this match to do it. Winner: Medvedev

Petra Kvitova vs. Sorana Cirstea

As far as players most likely to get on a roll during the Sunshine Double, Kvitova and Cirstea weren’t at the top of my list. They’re both over 30; neither is within a 10 spots of her career-high ranking; and neither had reached a semifinal before Indian Wells. But the season is long, and full of ebbs and flows; the Czech and the Romanian having their games flowing at the moment. Both made the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, and now they’re in the semis in Miami.

They have a fair amount of history against each other, some of it recent. Kvitova leads their head-to-head 6-4, and she won their most recent meeting, in Cincinnati last August. But Cirstea won the match before that, at the 2022 Australian Open, 6-2, 6-2.

Kvitova is the more powerful player and probably the safer pick. But I said the same thing when Cirstea took on Aryna Sabalenka, and we saw how that turned out. The more agile Cirstea generated plenty of power of her own, and put the ball in better places. Winner: Cirstea

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

Sinner and Alcaraz say they get along great, and respect each other immensely. This is fortunate, because they seem destined to face off against each other in high-stakes matches many, many times for many, many years to come. Last year they played at Wimbledon and the US Open, and split those two matches. Two weeks ago, they played in the semifinals at Indian Wells, and now they’re going to do the same in Miami.

This may put a strain on their relationship, but it’s good news for the rest of us. The 19-year-old Spaniard and the 21-year-old Italian tend to play thrilling, highly-competitive tennis against each other. Alcaraz leads their head to head 3-2, but Sinner had a match point before losing their most famous meeting, in the 2022 US Open quarters.

Even better, they’re both exceptionally in form at the moment. Neither has lost a set in Miami, and both have been clearly superior to their opponents in the ball-striking department. For the most part, they’ve belted their opponents off the court. Sinner has looked better, stronger and more complete than ever, which should mean something. But it may not against Alcaraz, who is better, stronger, faster, and more complete than anyone at the moment. Winner: Alcaraz