Miami Open preview, women’s final: Naomi Osaka vs. Iga Swiatek

WATCH: Naomi Osaka speaks to Tennis Channel Live after her semifinal win at the 2022 Miami Open.

Naomi Osaka vs. Iga Swiatek

The Miami Open women’s event feels like it has come full circle over the last two weeks. Just as it began, Ashleigh Barty announced her retirement, which signaled the end of the Aussie’s brief era at No. 1. Then, in the tournament’s opening days, four of the top seeds quickly went by the wayside, which seemed to signal tumultuous times ahead, as a new pecking order slowly sorted itself out. But now that we’ve reached the final, a sense of order has been restored, as Iga Swiatek, the new world No. 1, and Naomi Osaka, a rejuvenated four-time Grand Slam champion, have risen above the rest and will meet for the title.

A showdown between these two hard-hitting, high profile, and still-young stars couldn’t have come at a better time.

“I remember we had really nice backhand crosscourt rallies,” Swiatek said when she was asked about her only previous meeting with Osaka, which the latter won in two close sets in Canada in 2019. “We kept each other really on edge there. None of us missed basically.”

Back then, an 18-year-old Swiatek said she “felt like she had nothing to lose.” She also realized, facing Osaka, that the top players know how to use their serves to get themselves out of trouble. “Right now, I’m the kind of player who can do that,” says Swiatek, a bonafide top player herself.

At the moment, Swiatek is doing pretty much whatever she wants on a tennis court. She has won 16 straight matches, and hasn’t dropped a set in Miami. Jessica Pegula, Swiatek’s semifinal opponent, is the only player to push her to 7-5 in any set.

Swiatek says she’s swinging freely and playing more aggressively than ever, and in the process she has made herself as comfortable on hard courts as she has always been on clay. Every swing she takes feels proactive and aggressive, without being risky. Tennis players know it as the zone; unfortunately, it’s not a place that anyone can remain forever.

The question today is whether Swiatek can stay in her zone for one more match. Osaka will be the best player she has faced during her win streak. More importantly, Osaka is competing with the kind of stubborn resilience and core confidence that she had during her own run to No. 1 three years ago. When Danielle Collins came out belting winners against her in the quarterfinals, it only inspired Osaka to belt more winners of her own. When Belinda Bencic won a flawless first set against her in the semifinals, Osaka never panicked; instead of throwing her racquet, she kept her fist clenched, and kept plugging her way back into the match. Now she’s in her first final since the 2021 Australian Open.

Swiatek has reached a new level, while Osaka has returned to form. Put those two phenomena across the net from each other, and you have a difficult match to call.

I think Swiatek will be the tighter of the two, but if she can keep finding the corners with her ground strokes, and move Osaka the way she has moved her last 16 opponents, she should win. On the flip side, if Osaka can use her first serve to keep it close, and stay in it long enough to make Swiatek worry, she should have the mental edge. Winner: Osaka