Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview, Betting Odds

Where to Watch

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The winner of this match will win the BNP Paribas Open title for the first time. Andreeva is seeking her second WTA 1000 title of the season, while Sabalenka is in search of her first.

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BNP Paribas Open Match Preview

Steve Tignor: “I’m depressed right now,” Aryna Sabalenka said with a laugh in her post-match press conference on Friday night. “I’m almost 30.”

For the record, the WTA’s No. 1 player is 26, and will be until May. But a reporter had just asked whether she feels more pressure when she faces a 17-year-old opponent like Mirra Andreeva. It made her think of her younger sister, Tonechka, who is 15.

“I look at my sister as, like, a kid,” Sabalenka said. “You know, I remember her being this little baby. So I look at Mirra and think, ‘Oh, my God, I’m so old.’”

As a player, Sabalenka is in her prime, and she showed it again with her stunningly one-sided 6-0, 6-1 win over Madison Keys in her semifinal on Friday. She said beforehand that she wanted to avenge her loss to Keys in the Australian Open final in January, but she never expected it to happen so quickly.

“I needed this revenge badly, so I was really focused, and I think tactically I played really great tennis,” Sabalenka said.

Read more: Aryna Sabalenka says she “needed this revenge” after Madison Keys rout

Despite being the top seed, Sabalenka floated somewhat under the radar at Indian Wells until the semis. The attention-getters were Keys, an American making her return to the tour; Swiatek, who was dominating in her title defense; and Andreeva, a teen phenom on a collision course with Iga in the semis.

But Sabalenka went about her business, improved with each match, stayed calm in the windy and cold conditions, and didn’t drop a set. Now he she has a chance to win her first Indian Wells title, and regain some of the No. 1-player aura and momentum that she lost Down Under.

Once again, Sabalenka’s final-round opponent won’t be Swiatek. Despite being No. 1 and 2, they haven’t played a title match since Rome last May. This time, though, the matchup will be almost as highly anticipated. Andreeva has won 11 straight matches—two of them over Swiatek—and is gunning for her second straight 1000 title. Everyone knew she was a potential—maybe even guaranteed—major winner at some point in the future, but this latest surge has accelerated our expectations. She looks like she’ll be in contention at the Slams this season.

All of which makes this final more important and intriguing, and makes Sabalenka the next step up the mountain for Andreeva. The two have played five matches and Sabalenka has prevailed in four of of them, including two convincing straight-set victories this season, in Brisbane and Melbourne. Andreeva did win their only match at a Slam, last year in Paris, but Sabalenka was suffering from an upset stomach that day.

“The matches that we played this year didn't really go my way,” Andreeva says. “I can say she almost killed me, especially in Melbourne.”

Sabalenka did indeed play a suffocating brand of tennis in her 6-1, 6-2 Australian Open win over Andreeva. Whether she was serving or returning, Sabalenka was on top of the rallies right away, and didn’t allow Andreeva much chance to counter-punch or mix in her slices and drop shots. Sabalenka also read Andreeva’s first serve and sent it back with interest.

Is there any reason to think that this time will be different? The slower courts in Indian Wells may give the more defensive-minded Andreeva a little more time. And aside from a close first set in her opener against McCartney Kessler, Sabalenka hasn’t been challenged here.

Sabalenka, while she is stronger mentally than she once was, can still get rattled if she doesn’t start quickly, and doesn’t love facing players who hit hard enough to take control of the rallies from her. Andreeva’s slice forehand could be an effective disruptor, but upping her aggression level early in points may also be key. Either way, she sounds like she’ll be relaxed, at least at the start.

“I’m gonna try to take a revenge, because I still have nothing to lose, and I feel like the match is going to be probably entertaining. There is going to be a lot of, I think, a lot of winners, a lot of great points,” Andreeva says. “I will just go out there [like] every other match and try to play my best and to fight for every point, and then we're gonna see who’s gonna win.”

The answer may tell us a lot about how the rest of the WTA’s 2025 will go.

Winner: Sabalenka

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Betting Odds

Sabalenka is a -170 moneyline favorite; Andreeva is a +145 underdog.

To win the first set, Sabalenka is -165 and Andreeva is +120.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 15.)

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