Monte Carlo Preview: Amid big absences, will Tsitsipas, Medvedev or Sinner make the most of their opportunities?

WATCH: Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: 2023 French Open men’s futures

This year’s men’s clay-court season will get off to something of a slower start than we’ve grown used to over the last 15 to 20 years.

Once upon a time, the Principality by the sea was where Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic began their two-month traveling duel through Europe. But those days appear to be over. Neither man has reached the Monte Carlo final since 2018; Nadal will miss the tournament for the second straight year; and Djokovic lost in the third round and second round in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, the man who looks destined to take their place as a future clay king, Carlos Alcaraz, is also out with an injury.

Who might use this opening to get out of the gates quickly in Europe? Two-time defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas would seem to be the most likely to succeed, as long as his own lingering injury—a bad shoulder he picked up in Australia—doesn’t hold him back.

Here’s a look at the draw for the season’s first clay-court Masters 1000. Whatever happens on the court, the scenery around it should brighten up our week. (Full Monte Carlo singles draw.)

First Quarter

Rested or rusty? That has been the question for Djokovic in Monte Carlo the past few years, and it will be again in 2023. For the third straight season, he’ll come to this event having missed Indian Wells and Miami. If his early losses in 2021 and 2022 are any indication, it will be rust, rather than rest.

Djokovic will try to stick around longer this time, in a quarter where the other three seeds are Jannik Sinner, Hubert Hurkacz, and Lorenzo Musetti. Of those three, Sinner is having the best season, and will have high hopes of ascending even further in the run-up to Roland Garros.

First-round match to watch: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Miomir Kecmanovic

Throwback: David Goffin vs. Diego Schwartzman

Semifinalist: Jannik Sinner

Second Quarter

What should we make of Daniil Medvedev’s chances in his hometown? On the plus side, he’s on one of the runs of his life, having won four tournaments out of five, and 24 matches out of 25. On the minus side, we know that, historically, his feelings about clay run from hatred at worst to mocking dismissiveness at best. This year, after his win in Miami last weekend, he’ll also be making a quick turnaround from hard courts. Still, Medvedev has vowed to try his best, and not “lose my mind.” That’s a start.

Like Djokovic, Medvedev will have obstacles in his quarter. He could play the intermittently dangerous Lorenzo Sonego in his first match; Alexander Zverev, who nearly beat him in Indian Wells, after that; and Holger Rune or Cameron Norrie in the quarterfinals. Zverev in particular seems due to make a deep run at a quality event.

First-round matches to watch:

• Cameron Norrie vs. Francisco Cerundolo
• Matteo Berrettini vs. Maxime Cressy
• Richard Gasquet vs. Dominic Thiem

Semifinalist: Alexander Zverev

Third Quarter

Speaking of being due for a winning run at a quality event, that label certainly applies to Andrey Rublev. Of his 12 career titles, none have come at a Masters 1000. Monte Carlo, with a somewhat deflated draw, would seem to be the perfect place to get his first; he made the final here two years ago.

On paper, Rublev’s toughest competition will come in the quarterfinals, where he’s scheduled to play Casper Ruud. Until this week, Ruud was just 4-5 this season, but he has shown his first signs of life by taking the title in Estoril. Can he begin to reclaim the form that took him to No. 2 in the world last year? In the head-to-head between Ruud and Rublev, the Russian leads 4-2, and is 3-0 on clay.

First-round matches to watch:

• Alex de Minaur vs. Andy Murray
• Karen Khachanov vs. 2022 Monte Carlo runner-up Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Semifinalist: Andrey Rublev

Fourth Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas’s shoulder is the question mark of the week. He hasn’t lost a match in Monte Carlo since 2019, but his injury hampered him in Indian Wells and Miami. The fact that he’s playing doubles this week with his brother, Petros, may be a sign that he’s ready to go. If so, this is a quarter he can certainly win on clay. The other three seeds are Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, and Borna Coric.

Wild card: Stan Wawrinka

First-round matches to watch:

• Frances Tiafoe vs. Jiri Lehecka
• Ben Shelton vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Semifinalist: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Semifinals: Sinner d. Zverev; Tsitsipas d. Rublev

Final: Tsitsipas d. Sinner