Monte Carlo Preview: Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner begin two-man, two-month race back to Roland Garros

The clay-court swing is the perfect vehicle for a long, winding, two-man Slam race.

It runs for most of spring—from early April to early June. It includes three Masters 1000s and a major. It takes us on a tour of some of the sport’s most scenic and historic sites. And it puts the players on a surface that demands a mix of artistry and physicality like no other.

👉 Stream the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters live on the Tennis Channel app!

Rivalries have time to build, and tilt back and forth, on the dirt path to Roland Garros. We saw it happen with Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, with Nadal and Novak Djokovic, and with Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.

The rivalry of 2026, of course, is between Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Last year, their clay race got off to a slow start, because Sinner was serving a suspension during the first two 1000s, in Monte Carlo and Madrid. Even then, though, they managed to wind things up with an all-time classic final in Paris.

This time around, they’ll both be at the starting gate in Monaco next week. Now that the draw has been made, here are three things to watch for as Alcaraz, Sinner, and their ATP tour-mates rev their clay engines.

How do Alcaraz’s and Sinner’s draws stack up?

Alcaraz’s potential road to the final looks like this:

• 2nd rd: Baez or Wawrinka
• 3rd rd: Tiafoe
• QF: Lehecka or Bublik
• SF: Musetti or De Minaur

Sinner’s looks like this:

• 2nd rd: Humbert or Kouame
• 3rd rd: Cerundolo or Tsitsipas
• QF: Ruud or Auger-Aliassime
• SF: Zverev or Medvedev

Sinner’s half may have higher-quality competition overall, especially when you remember that Tsitsipas, his potential third-round opponent, has won this tournament three times. But Alcaraz could face the man who took a set from him in last year’s final, Lorenzo Musetti. If Musetti is healthy, that is; the Italian has had an injury-riddled 2026, and pulled out of Miami with an arm issue.

As the tournament starts, it’s hard to call anyone a legitimate threat to either of the top two. Alcaraz is the defending champion, he’s No. 1 in the world, and he started the year with 16 straight wins. Sinner is on a 12-match win streak, just completed the Sunshine Double, and seems exceptionally focused as he sets his sights on reclaiming the top spot from the Spaniard (there are multiple scenarios where it could happen following this event, including defeating Alcaraz in the final).

Two guys who could have posed dangers, Djokovic and Arthur Fils, have withdrawn, and another, Holger Rune, is still recovering from Achilles’ surgery. Jack Draper is also out.

Are there any question marks surrounding Alcaraz or Sinner at the moment?

I’d say each has one.

Alcaraz’s Sunshine Swing results were disappointing. He lost to Daniil Medvedev in the Indian Wells semis, and Sebastian Korda early in Miami. He looked human for the first time in 2026, and showed that he’s still capable of losing the plot in a match. But the same was true in 2025. After going out in his opener in Miami, he bounced back to win Monte Carlo, Rome, and Paris.

The question for Sinner may be his serve. The shot has been excellent in 2026, and it was off-the-charts good during his 12-match win streak in the States in March. But can he be as effective with it on slower red clay, where aces and free points are harder to come by?

What are the early-round matches to watch?

• Stan Wawrinka vs. Sebastian Baez: Stan had one of his great results here, when he beat Roger Federer in the 2014 final. This will be the 41-year-old’s last go-round
• Gael Monfils vs. Tallon Griekspoor: Monfils, 39, will also be making his final trip to the Principality
• Joao Fonseca vs. Gabriel Diallo
• Francisco Cerundolo vs. three-time Monte Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas
• Casper Ruud vs. Alexei Popyrin: the Aussie upset the 2024 finalist in the third round last year after saving two match points
• Musetti vs. Valentin Vacherot (possible 2nd rd)
• Medvedev vs. Matteo Berrettini (possible 2nd rd)