Monte Carlo Preview: Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz take first steps on the road to Roland Garros

With its sea-cliff view and early April start, the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters is a perennially uplifting sign of spring. For tennis fans, the sudden appearance of red clay courts, in a picturesque European locale, is also a sign that the season’s stakes are about to rise. For the next two months, every result will be seen as a signal of what’s to come at the year’s second Slam, in Paris.

In 2024, though, the clay-swing drama will be without its traditional protagonist, Rafael Nadal. This week, in a refrain that has become depressingly familiar, Rafa announced that he won’t be able to compete for his 12th title in Monte Carlo. Still, virtually everyone else of note on the men’s tour, including Nadal’s longtime rival Novak Djokovic, will be in the Principality.

Here’s a look at the first draw on the long and winding road to Roland Garros:

First Quarter

Nadal is out of Monte Carlo. How long will it take Djokovic to join him?

That’s not a question you often ask of the world No. 1, but it comes to mind this week for a couple of reasons. (1) Djokovic hasn’t made it past the third round in his adopted hometown since 2019. His last three losses have come to Dan Evans, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Lorenzo Musetti, none of whom have ever made the Top 10 or beaten Djokovic anywhere else. (2) The Serb is also in the middle of a rare period of uncertainty. He’ll turn 37 next month, he lost at the Australian Open for the first time in six years, he just fired his longtime head coach, Goran Ivanisevic, he lost early in Indian Wells and skipped Miami, and he doesn’t have a title yet in 2024.

Will that motivate him to do more than he usually does in Monte Carlo? Or will his malaise continue for another week? Djokovic might play Musetti or Taylor Fritz in the third round, and defending champion Andrey Rublev in the quarters.

Player of Interest: Fritz. He’s one of only three Americans, along with Sebastian Korda and Marcos Giron, in the field, but he’s also the only one to make the semis here last year. He could use the jolt of a good result, after a ho-hum run through Indian Wells and Miami.

First-round matches to watch:

• Fritz vs. Musetti
• Stan Wawrinka vs. Alex De Minaur

Semifinalist: Rublev

Second Quarter

If Djokovic has been a slow-starter during the clay season of late, Carlos Alcaraz has been a non-starter. He has yet to win a match in Monte Carlo, losing his opener to Sebastian Korda in 2022 and pulling out in 2023. Isn’t it time for this clay lover to light up Monaco, the way he has every other venue in the game? With Rafa on the sidelines and Djokovic teetering at the moment, Alcaraz may be the favorite to win his first title at Roland Garros.

His Monte Carlo draw should give him the opportunity to get out of the gates quickly. Alcaraz could face a long-slumping Felix Auger Aliassime in his first match. After that, the highest seeds in this section are Casper Ruud, Hubert Hurkacz, and Ugo Humbert—no one that a B+ level Alcaraz can’t handle.

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Third Quarter

Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev may have let out a simultaneous sigh as they saw the draw on Friday. The Russian and the German have met seven times in the past 13 months. Many of those matches have been close, some have been contentious, and virtually all—six of seven—have been won by Medvedev. The most recent was a heartbreaker for Zverev, who was up two sets to love in the Australian Ope semis, before letting a weary Medvedev sneak away with the win.

Will Zverev get his chance at revenge this week? He and Medvedev are the top two seeds in this section, but each could face a familiar obstacle on his way to the quarterfinals. For Zverev, that’s Stefanos Tsitsipas; for Medvedev, it’s Karen Khachanov.

Player of Interest: Tsitsipas. He has slipped out of the Top 10, hasn’t won a title in 2024, and is coming off an opening-round loss in Miami. But he’s also a two-time champion in Monte Carlo.

Unseeded South American threats: Nicolas Jarry and Francisco Cerundolo. Jarry could play Tsitsipas n the second round; Cerundolo could play Medvedev in the third round.

Semifinalist: Zverev

Fourth Quarter

Jannik Sinner may be the most interesting case of the week, as the Italian will be making his first appearance on clay since he began to win everything in sight last fall. So far in 2024, he has had the best season among the men, and he’ll be looking for his second straight Slam win at Roland Garros. Which begs the question: Is he already a stronger contender in Paris than Alcaraz? Sinner has certainly had the better results in Monte Carlo. Where Alcaraz has yet to win a match there, Sinner reached the quarterfinals in 2022 and the semis in 2023.

Now we’ll see the new Sinner on dirt. He could face Korda or Davidovich Fokina in his opener, and possibly last year’s runner-up Holger Rune, or Grigor Dimotrov, in the quarters.

Semifinalist: Sinner

Semifinals: Alcaraz d. Rublev; Sinner d. Zverev

Final: Alcaraz d. Sinner

Champion: Alcaraz