Monte Carlo lookahead: will a new 1000 champ emerge or someone add to Masters hardware?

Of the eight quarterfinalists set to play Friday in Monte Carlo, four have previously captured ATP Masters 1000 trophies. Just one player has done so at any of the 1000s held during the European clay-court swing, with his success coming at this very event. Running through the title hopefuls (with results added as they happen):

TOP QUARTER

Lorenzo Musetti

Career Masters 1000 titles: 0

After securing his first win over a world No. 1 with his three-set victory against Novak Djokovic, Musetti is through to the last eight of a Masters 1000 for the second time (2022 Paris Bercy). Last summer, he picked up his maiden ATP title at Hamburg’s 500 clay-court event, upstaging Carlos Alcaraz in the final. This week’s run has enabled Musetti to move above .500 on the season at 9-8.

Jannik Sinner

Career Masters 1000 titles: 0

Musetti’s opponent, fellow 21-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner, has been much closer to breaking through at this level. A match point save was required to get past Hubert Hurkacz Thursday, a win that marked his 40th on the 1000 stage. Sinner went semifinal-final across the season’s first two Masters events at the Sunshine Double, though will be looking to overturn a 0-3 mark in 1000 quarterfinals held on clay.

Head-to-head: Sinner leads 1-0 (2021 Antwerp, indoor hard)

END RESULT: Sinner, 6-2, 6-2

SECOND QUARTER

Daniil Medvedev

Career Masters 1000 titles: 5

The self-proclaimed clay hater is three victories away from raising his first trophy on the surface after one tremendous win. Alexander Zverev served for the match at 5-4 in both the second and third sets of their third-rounder, then held two match points in a decisive tiebreaker after falling behind 5-2. Medvedev somehow escaped to celebrate his 26th win in 27 matches. The last time he contested Monte Carlo, Medvedev beat Djokovic on his way to the 2019 semifinals. If the No. 3 seed emerges as the last one standing, it’ll cement 20 trophies at 20 different tournaments.

Holger Rune

Career Masters 1000 titles: 1

Will an unplanned day off help or hurt Rune following Matteo Berrettini’s withdrawal ahead of their third-rounder? The No. 6 seed was stellar in his 2023 debut on red dirt, clubbing 40 winners to overpower Dominic Thiem in the second round. Five successive Top 10 wins propelled the Dane to his first 1000 trophy on indoor hard Paris-Bercy last year, a breakout performance that arguably superseded his first trip to a Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros months earlier.

Head-to-head: First meeting

END RESULT: Rune, 6-3, 6-4

THIRD QUARTER

Andrey Rublev

Career Masters 1000 titles: 0

The question has been asked many a time before: is this Rublev’s week to shine above the 500s? Just two years ago, the 25-year-old came within a win of the title here in a terrific tournament that included taking out Rafael Nadal. But after making two 1000 finals in 2021, Rublev managed just nine wins across the eight Masters held in 2022 (he owns six so far this year). The fifth seed comes into Friday with a confident victory over friend Karen Khachanov after rallying from a set down in his opener.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Career Masters 1000 titles: 0

Don’t be fooled by the No. 100 ranking next to Struff’s name. The former Top 30 player struggled to return from a right foot injury last year, but has hit his stride this week—first qualifying and then taking six straight sets in main-draw action that saw the German oust No. 14 seed Alex de Minaur and No. 4 seed Casper Ruud. Struff is seeking his best 1000 result, with one prior quarterfinal (2021 Cincinnati) to his name.

Head-to-head: Tied 2-2 (Split two clay-court matches in 2021)

END RESULT: Rublev, 6-1, 7-6 (5)

BOTTOM QUARTER

Taylor Fritz

Career Masters 1000 titles: 1

Back-to-back last-eight appearances at this tournament further indicate Fritz’s growth as an all-surface player. The top-ranked American fended off multiple set points against Stan Wawrinka and then turned the tide to topple rising talent Jiri Lehecka en route to matching his 2022 result. Fritz’s biggest 1000 moment to date occurred in 2022 at a “home” Indian Wells, a similar connection his quarterfinal foe feels when competing in Monaco. A win Friday would rank highly among his achievements.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Career Masters 1000 titles: 2

Tsitsipas, who first came to the venue as a six-year-old, is bidding to join Ilie Nastase and Rafael Nadal as the only players in the Open Era to three-peat in Monte Carlo. The Greek holds a 6-1 record in Masters 1000 clay-court quarterfinals and a win versus Fritz would be his 80th overall on the surface. Struggling with a right shoulder injury following his Australian Open final appearance, Tsitsipas is aiming to win back-to-back completed matches for the first time since Melbourne (he played five games in round two before Bonzi retired).

Head-to-head: Tsitsipas leads 3-0 (all hard court)

END RESULT: Fritz, 6-2, 6-4