Monte Carlo Semifinal Preview: Andrey Rublev vs. Taylor Fritz; Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune

HIGHLIGHTS: Rune cools off Medvedev in last eight

This year’s men’s clay swing looked like it was destined to get off to a slower and duller start than usual. Rafael Nadal, king of the spring, and Carlos Alcaraz, his presumed Spanish successor, were both out of the kick-off tournament in Monte Carlo with injuries. Novak Djokovic, the biggest star in the field, hasn’t thrived in his one-time hometown in recent years. And the in-form player of the moment, Daniil Medvedev, has never made his distaste for dirt a secret.

Despite all of that, this week has turned into one of the spiciest and saltiest of 2023 so far. Djokovic stomped on a racquet in his loss to Lorenzo Musetti. On Thursday Stefanos Tsitsipas mocked his opponent, Taylor Fritz, as a “unicorn” of U.S. clay-court tennis; on Friday, Fritz turned around and handed the Greek his first loss at this event since 2019. Medvedev and Alexander Zverev played a mini-epic that the Russian won in a third-set tiebreaker; afterward, Zverev accused Medvedev of being a bad sport, and gave him the coldest of cold fish handshakes when the match was over.

So, maybe this will be a fun run-up to Roland Garros after all, even if it doesn’t include the traditional weekly showdowns between Nadal and Djokovic. Here’s a look ahead at Saturday’s semifinals.

Andrey Rublev vs. Taylor Fritz

Fritz is probably the most intriguing of the final four. He’s won three matches that you wouldn’t expect a U.S. man to win on clay, over Stan Wawrinka, Jiri Lehecka, and Tsitsipas, the two-time defending champion. The latter was Fritz’s first-ever Top 10 win on clay, and he needed just 70 minutes of convincing, attacking tennis to do it.

Fritz likely won’t be favored to do the same thing to Rublev, another accomplished clay-courter who made the Monte Carlo final in 2021. But the American may like his chances anyway. He’s 4-2 against Rublev, and has won their last three meetings. All of those have come on hard courts, but Fritz looked like he was playing hard-court tennis against Tsitsipas, and it worked just fine for him. How much of an advantage can Fritz get out of the difference in their serves? Rublev’s second delivery is a weakness, and Fritz has the backhand return to exploit it. Winner: Fritz

Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune

The ATP has a few promising long-term rivalries brewing among the Next Next Gen set. Sinner vs. Alcaraz is already appointment viewing, and Alcaraz vs. Rune looks like it will be as well. But this is the first chance we’ll get to see the 21-year-old Sinner and the 19-year-old Rune square off on a big stage. They’ve played once before, on indoor hard courts in Sofia last year; Rune was up 5-2 in the third set when Sinner retired.

Each appears to be at his sharpest at the moment. Rune beat the virtually unbeatable Medvedev on Friday, while Sinner, continuing a hot streak that began in February, made clinical work of countryman Lorenzo Musetti. Sinner and Rune both like their two-handed backhands, and both have improved their serves. Sinner probably has the more lethal forehand, while Rune is the better all-around athlete. Each is still prone to peaks and valleys, but that shouldn’t make this semifinal any less entertaining, or edifying about their respective places in the game right now. Winner: Sinner