It's the most wide open clay season on the ATP Tour in 20 years—and the players are here for it

“Always the beginning of the clay season is very exciting to see who’s in the best form,” Holger Rune expressed to me earlier this month in Monte Carlo.

While the Dane was forced to retire from his opening match at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters due to food poisoning, Rune shook it off like a champion by completing a stellar run 12 days later to win the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. Having taken down reigning title holder Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals, the 21-year-old conquered the rival with the Monte Carlo trophy in hand, Carlos Alcaraz, for his first triumph in two years.

“I think it’s very, very open,” Rune remarked when assessing the ATP's state of competition on the red dirt.

That sentiment is one shared by several of his fellow title seekers.

“In general, tennis it’s really open right now, I think. The level of tennis is really high,” believes Matteo Berrettini, who knocked out second-ranked Alexander Zverev in Monte Carlo. “A guy that is No. 50, 60, 70 in the world can win.

“Now it’s way more open, and I like it.”

“Every player in the locker room is believing that they can win, myself included, which I think is good for the sport, for the fans,” says 2024 Madrid runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime. Underscoring Berrettini’s point, albeit not the way he would have hoped, the Canadian has come out on the losing end in his first two clay matches so far to opponents ranked No. 84 and No. 70, respectively.

During last year’s European clay swing, five different men won the five biggest tournaments (this season, there are seven events at the 500 level or higher with Munich’s upgrade and Hamburg moving to the week ahead of Roland Garros). Adding to that, two new ATP Masters 1000 champions emerged from the Sunshine Double of Indian Wells and Miami in Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik.

“There’s an interesting situation in the tennis world. You’ve got tons of young great players doing well now. It shows to the other players that anything is possible, really,” reflects Ruud, a two-time French Open finalist.

“We definitely see the new generation coming. I feel a little bit old now with the young guns. I see guys like Fonseca, Mensik, Tien, they could be like a little brother on tour,” Lorenzo Musetti jokes.

I do think that the conditions, in general, courts, balls, etcetera make it so the field is more even. So many, many upsets. It’s not even upsets because so many people play averagely same level. Daniil Medvedev

The Italian, still just 23 himself, came back from a set down on four occasions—three of which were 6-1 deficits—to reach his first 1000-level final at the Monte Carlo Country Club. His countryman, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, wasn't in the draw: He's currently training in Monaco at the tail end of a three-month suspension, part of the three-time major winner's agreement with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) for his March 2024 positive tests for the banned substance clostebol. Sinner's ban will be lifted on May 4, in time to compete on home soil in Rome.

“We don’t have Jannik for the first couple of tournaments, so that opens it up a little bit as well. It’s a very interesting draw,” says Rune.

Sinner isn’t the only notable name missing in Madrid. The 'anybody’s game' outlook cannot be recognized without acknowledging the absence of the man who monopolized the spring throughout his career. For the first time officially in two decades, Rafael Nadal isn't part of the conversation after hanging up his racquet last November at the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga.

“Rafa is not there on clay, so it’s for sure more open than it was before. Guys were like, 'Who’s making the final?’” laughs Daniil Medvedev.

“It helps that Nadal doesn’t play anymore, that’s for sure. It was closed because we had a specimen of a player on this surface,” adds Auger-Aliassime.

According to Alcaraz, “Rafa made something impossible to repeat, what he has done on clay. I think that’s why it’s really open right now for clay season. I think it’s great for tennis.”

Joining Rune and Alcaraz in the winners’ circle last Sunday was Zverev, who defeated Ben Shelton to pick up his third Munich crown. At the next tour stop in Madrid, Andrey Rublev is the defending champion, while fourth-ranked Taylor Fritz, back from a recurring abdominal injury, is a returning semifinalist.

“I definitely wouldn’t rule out anyone doing well or having deep runs on clay. The surface evens out the field quite a bit," shares Grigor Dimitrov. "I think each player has a different way of coping with that. I for one feel just as excited as I always am changing surfaces.”

Medvedev expects surprise results to flourish. The former world No. 1, whose 20th and most recent title came nearly two years ago in Rome, has his own thoughts on what's created the level playing field that Dimitrov referenced.

“A lot of people are up and down. I do think that the conditions, in general, courts, balls, etcetera make it so the field is more even,” the Russian explains. “So many, many upsets. It’s not even upsets because so many people play averagely same level. I don’t think it’s because of the way tennis is. It’s more the way conditions are.”

Reigning Indian Wells champion Draper went through a full slate of European clay events for the first time in 2024. Now with the Top 5 in sight, the left-hander has all the reason to trust his gains as a player will translate to leaving more of an impression before the grass season and ultimately avoiding the “many, many upsets” Medvedev mentioned.

“I feel like a very different player to what I was last year. I feel I’ve improved in all areas,” says Draper. “Last year, I wasn’t able to get my feet off the ground. It’s obviously more of a challenge than other surfaces for me, but I don’t see why I can’t be really effective on this surface. I’m looking forward to the challenge of proving to myself that I can play at a great level on these courts.”

Rafa made something impossible to repeat, what he has done on clay. I think that’s why it’s really open right now for clay season. I think it’s great for tennis. Carlos Alcaraz

Arthur Fils pointed to Draper as one peer playing “great” ball at the moment. But the 20-year-old, fresh off three consecutive quarterfinal appearances on the Masters 1000 stage, doesn’t necessarily believe the remaining tournaments in this phase of the calendar are as wide open as others do.

“Everyone is playing great on clay. But there are still some even better players,” Fils insists before highlighting Alcaraz, Zverev and the person that mastered Nadal most frequently this time of year, Novak Djokovic.

“Novak is always a threat no matter where, when. As long as you put him on the court, he’ll be in for a tough one,” weighs in Ruud, who also correctly predicted Alcaraz “is probably hungry” just before the Spaniard kicked off a nine-match unbeaten run that was ultimately halted by Rune.

Considering all the elements in play, Medvedev puts it best with a simple cliché that works in this case:

“It’s gonna be interesting.”

No lies told.