Musetti vs. Alcaraz, Djokovic vs. Sinner: Roland Garros semifinals best bets

On Friday, June 6, we’re getting two tremendous semifinal matches at Roland Garros. In the first match, Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz will clash in a rematch of their Monte Carlo final and Rome semifinal. Then, we’ll all be tuned in while 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic faces world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. This slate is too big for a single “Pick of the Day”—let’s break down both matches from a betting perspective.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz (8:30 a.m. ET)

Alcaraz is 5-1 over Musetti, including two wins on clay this season. Both times, Alcaraz looked comfortable, and he’s coming off a dominant performance against Tommy Paul, dropping just five games and winning an incredible 48 of 55 service points. Given that, it’s easy to see why many expect Alcaraz to roll into the Roland Garros final.

But tennis isn’t that simple. Players aren’t defined by their last match, and Alcaraz has shown some inconsistency this tournament, dropping sets to Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton. Any lapses against Musetti could prove costly, especially since the Italian has become one of the best clay-courters on tour. He's made deep runs at all the big clay events this year, and took a set off Alcaraz in Monte Carlo before an injury slowed him down. He was also up a break in the second set in Rome, but he lost his focus serving at 4-3 to give it back.

Musetti’s game is built to frustrate. He’s an elite returner, and great at mixing up spins and playing sharp angles. He’s also relentless when it comes to defending the baseline. That can really make his opponents work. And if Alcaraz gets sloppy, Musetti will pounce on his mistakes. Plus, Musetti’s serve is better than ever, and if he keeps his nerves in check—something that might be easier away from the pressure of playing at home—he could make this a real fight.

I love Alcaraz’s game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Musetti pushes him hard. The Italian has the tools and the confidence, and if Alcaraz isn’t at his best, this could go the distance, which would easily cover this bet. I wouldn’t rule out an upset either.

Pick: Musetti +2.5 Sets (-130)

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner (1:00 p.m. ET)

I would have liked to take Djokovic to win a set here, but the odds aren’t good enough. Instead, I’m going with Over 3.5 sets—pretty much the same play, unless you think Djokovic sweeps Sinner, which feels unlikely. I’m not going big with this one (since I already have futures on both Sinner and Djokovic to win the tournament, meaning I’m covered either way), but this is a play I feel confident in.

Sinner comes in as a heavy favorite and hasn’t dropped a set all tournament. He’s the world No. 1 and has beaten Djokovic the last three times they’ve played. Still, Sinner hasn’t won a clay title in years—an ATP 250 in Umag, in 2022—and clay is where he looks least comfortable moving around the court. Djokovic, meanwhile, is a master tactician and just pulled off a gritty win over Alexander Zverev, using dropshots to keep the German off balance. I expect him to go to that same shot a lot against Sinner, who is still a bit questionable when it comes to fitness. I also think we’ll see plenty of serve-and-volley from Djokovic, whose slider out wide is one of the biggest cheat codes in tennis. He'll go to that pretty much every time there's a big point on the deuce side.

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Djokovic’s experience and mental toughness in best-of-five-set matches can’t be ignored, especially if Sinner’s fitness wavers. The Serbian is also extremely motivated, just two wins away from a record 25th Slam. If Djokovic can exploit Sinner’s movement and mix up his tactics, he’s got a real shot at grabbing at least a set, if not more.

Bottom line: Sinner’s form is incredible, but Djokovic’s ability to execute a game plan, combined with his determination, makes this a fascinating semifinal. I’m expecting a battle, not a blowout.

Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-141)