by Pete Bodo
One thing about that galoot Juan Martin del Potro; he's been about as methodical as he is big. As predictable (and I mean that in a good way) as the sunrise. As stable as the concrete piling holding up a major bridge. Which is why his actions and results in recent months have been a little puzzling.
Up until Wimbledon, we watched the familiar, reliable Argentine picking up a good head of steam in his comeback from the almost entirely lost year of 2010 (wrist surgery). The former U.S. Open champ (career high ranking: No. 4) sallied forth in 2011 ranked No. 259. He had trouble finding his legs in Australia; he lost to Florian Mayer in his second match in Sydney and yielded to Marco Baghdatis in the second round of the Australian Open. But he made back-to-back semifinals in consecutive weeks at his next two ATP events, indoors and on hard courts in San Jose and Memphis.
Playing for a third week in a row, this time on outdoor hard courts, No. 166 del Potro won the whole shooting match in Delray Beach. This was not unfamiliar stuff. Like the proverbial elephant, it may take Delpo a while to get going, but when he does you can hear him coming from a long way off. Remember, this is the same slow-spoken, hunch-shouldered, 6'6" fella who hadn't even turned 20 when he crashed the ATP rankings (and almost crashed the computer software) with title-round wins at four consecutive events—two on European outdoor clay and two on North American hard courts. Hovering outside the Top 50 in July, he was No. 8 in the world by the first week of November.
The breakthrough at Delray this year left him ranked No. 90; he kept charging hard, blasting his way to the semis at Indian Wells (l. to Nadal) and he made the fourth round in Miami (l. to Fish). Del Potro won his next event, Estoril (red clay). He was beaten by Nadal in Madrid and Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros; by then, you had the feeling that he was getting his ranking and reputation back—the hard way.
Although del Potro is one of those big men who had a hard time figuring out the grass-court game, he was delighted when he made the fourth round at Wimbledon (l. to Nadal). All in all, he seemed poised to do well at a time of year and on North American hard courts where he's had great success in the past, and that's when things became tricky.
Del Potro was a Top 20 player by the time he played his first U.S. hard court event, Los Angeles. He was upset in the quarters there by Ernests Gulbis. At the Montreal Masters, he lost to Marin Cilic, and at Cincinnati he didn't offer much resistance against Roger Federer. Del Potro looked dispirited and not entirely confident at the U.S. Open, where he played a passive, sloppy, third-round match against Gilles Simon and lost in four sets. But he bounced back with an authoritative win over Janko Tisparevic in the Davis Cup semifinals in Belgrade, and he was locked up with Djokovic when the Serb quit after falling behind 6-7, 0-3 (bad back).
And then the quiet, shy Argentine more or less vanished. He hasn't played a competitive match since mid-September, but is the No. 2 seed this week at Stockholm (indoor hard). It begs the question, Why didn't del Potro play at all in Asia, given his excellent track record on outdoor hard courts? Could it be because he suffered two bad first round-beatings (Bangkok and Tokyo) last year, and they left a bad taste in his mouth—a taste that couldn't be eradicated by the fact that he was just testing the comeback waters at the time?
I haven't discovered much about why Delpo pulled the plug for so long, other than that he said he wants to concentrate on the upcoming Davis Cup final in Spain. Which begs another question: If he's prioritizing that tournament, which will be played in Seville on indoor clay, why did he choose to play in the coming weeks on indoor hard—and pretty fast hard courts at that?
It was mystifying to me until I looked at the points race for ATP World Tour Finals. Del Potro is sitting in the No. 12 position, with 2,050 points—only 700-odd points out of the No. 8 spot. It looks to me like as much as he cares about Davis Cup, he may be hoping for a late-season surge that puts him back into the WTF, where he's done well in the past (runner-up in 2009). More evidence: del Potro has a heavy schedule on indoor hard, which might be a good play as Davis Cup preparation—if Argentina were playing the final against Serbia. But given the site and surface of the tie, you have to wonder if it's a wise move. Of course, if he has a great run indoors, and especially if he qualifies for the WTF, the confidence dividend may outweigh the fitness/fatigue deficit.
It will take a huge effort for del Potro to make the WTF, especially if he doesn't get a lot of help from the men he's chasing. He's a mere 320 points behind No. 9 Nicolas Almagro, but then there's a big jump up to Tsonga in that coveted, last-man-in, No. 8 slot. Tsonga has 2,790 points and ought to be able to hold his place unless he really flames out. Neither man has a boatload of points to defend from here on in—in fact, del Potro has none.
Whatever his thinking, the forgotten man of the fall could be a significant factor for what's left of the year, even if he doesn't qualify for the elite eight. He might wind up a kingmaker, with three of the eight berths still undecided. I know that if I were Tsonga or Almagro, I wouldn't be too keen on seeing del Potro's name opposite mine early in a tournament.
In Stockholm (an ATP 250 event) del Potro is seeded second and starts with bye. But in an irony that Davis Cup fans will appreciate, his potential third-round opponent is compatiot and teammate David Nalbandian. On seedings form, del Potro would then have to play Stanislas Wawrinka in the semis, and top-seeded Gael Monfils in the final. That upper, Monfils half contains some interesting and potentially threatening characters, including Tommy Haas, Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, Marcos Baghdatis and Bernard Tomic.
Looking ahead, del Potro is also entered in Vienna and Valencia (indoor hard), the latter a 500 event. And I assume that since he missed Shanghai, Delpo will be playing the Paris Indoors. That's a big workload to take on as preparation for a Davis Cup tie on a surface del Potro hasn't set foot on since the Davis Cup World Group quarterfinal, way back the week after Wimbledon (del Potro had a singles win in Argentina's win over Kazakhstan on outdoor clay).
On the other hand, Delpo could gain rankings ground and confidence if he has a good fall indoor run, and the upside, should he fall short of making the World Tour Finals, is that he'll have a solid two weeks rest before having to face Nadal and company on clay in Sevilla.