Naomi Osaka's early Australian Open exit raises two key questions

The tunnel players use to walk into Rod Laver Arena is lined with names and faces of Australian Open champions past. As Naomi Osaka traveled down that tunnel for the first time in two years on Monday night, she reached out and touched her own name as she passed by—a good-luck ritual from her glory days Down Under. The two-time tournament winner, who was away from the game for 15 months, may have wanted to remind herself of exactly who she was, and how well she could play this sport.

It turned out that the crowd inside the packed stadium was ready to help. Evening-session ticket-holders often drift away after the first match on the schedule is over, but this time they stayed and cheered, en masse, for Osaka’s late-night debut against Caroline Garcia. Whether Osaka heard them or not is another question; she walked out with headphones firmly on, and a look of uncertainty across her face.

Ironically, it was a grinning Garcia, who arrived to just a few hearty cheers from a one-row French rooting section, who seemed to savor the moment more. Over her 15-year career, Garcia had never been scheduled second at night; that’s not a spot every player loves, but she embraced the rare chance to play a headline contest that the whole world would be watching.

“I play tennis for this kind of match,” Garcia said. “Win or lose, I wanted to have fun and experience it to the max.”

The players’ contrasting demeanors showed up in their play. Garcia was proactive, Osaka reactive. Garcia came in with a plan—crowd the baseline, attack the return, get the first punch in—and stuck with it. Osaka, normally one of the WTA’s most powerful ball-strikers, never found a way to impose her will on the proceedings. Halfway into the second set, she was still practicing her backhand swing in between points, trying to get herself to prepare faster.

Osaka hit 14 fewer winners than Garcia (34 to 20). She made just 51 percent of her first serves. She never earned a break point. She won just 10 of 65 points on Garcia’s serve, a startlingly low number for a player with her return-of-serve skills. Yet she served big enough to keep the match close and only lose 6-4, 7-6 (2).

When it counted most, though, in the second-set tiebreaker, it was Garcia who reeled off three aces and two forehand winners to win going away. Rather than fight the pro-Osaka audience, she drafted off their energy.

“I was feeling good out there,” Garcia said. “I wanted to have a good time.”

Osaka looked glum as she walked back down the tunnel and passed her name again. Her comeback never had a chance to get off the ground in Australia. Admittedly, Garcia was a tough draw, not just because of her past Top 5 ranking, but because of the way she can rush a rusty opponent. Afterward, Osaka pronounced herself pleased with her performance, and seemed to understand that she couldn’t expert perfection so soon.

“I thought it was a really good match,” she said. “For me, I felt like I did the best that I could possibly do.”

Naturally, she had caveats.

“I felt like I was constantly on my back foot and really hesitant,” she said. “I think it might be because I haven't played matches in a while. I was a little bit overthinking in my head where to go.”

“Of course I have to tell myself, ‘Hey, like six months ago you were pregnant,’ stuff like that,” she said. “But it is really tough to I guess play a good server and not make too many returns.”

What, if anything, can we learn about Osaka’s coming season from her trip to Australia? She knows she needs more matches, and says she feels good that she was at least competitive in the three she has played so far. She said she plans, or at least wants, to play in Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, Charleston and “then a full clay season.”

Osaka’s racquet will get quicker, and her selection more instinctive in the coming months. But two questions come to mind when I look ahead to her 2024.

• First, how much losing can she stomach before she starts to win? Every player hates to lose, of course, but it’s especially true of Osaka—it’s her blessing and her curse. Whatever positive things she said in her press conference, her dour look as she walked out of Laver spoke loud and clear about her disappointment. Every one of her opponents will be ready for her, the way Garcia was today, and even at her best, Osaka was never a steady title winner. Outside of the Slams, she has only won three tournaments in her career.
• Second, how will she match up against the WTA in 2024? Osaka overpowered her opponents at her peak, but have Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina caught up or even surpassed her in that regard?

All of that is in the future. For today, we can say it’s good to have Osaka’s star power and unique personality back on court, and in the interview room. Today she showed up for her press conference still wearing the shiny gold Nike jacket that she wore on court, and planned to sport for the rest of the tournament.

“I'm a little sad ’cause this outfit's really cool and you won’t see it again,” Osaka said to laughter from the press. “That’s why I had to wear it in here.”

Hopefully she’ll get to show off her outfits for longer as the season goes on.