The tours are in full stride and descending on the U.S. as we speak. This is as fast-moving as it gets all summer in tennis, with the players making the short flight straight from one Masters/Premier dual-gender extravaganza in Canada to another in Cincinnati. In Montreal and Toronto, the men and women were linked by a TV channel. In Cincy, for the first time, they’ll be playing on the same set of courts. Both sides come in with a pecking order, at least at the very top, firmly established.
On the ATP side, after briefly descending into chaos, the men finished where they've been finishing all year, with new world No. 1 Novak Djokovic hoisting the trophy. Can he do it yet again this week? The Canada-Cincy double, which must be pulled off in the heat of summer, with thoughts of the U.S. Open looming, is about as difficult as any accomplishment in the sport. So difficult that most men in the past have been less than eager even to try for it.
This year, though, the majority of the top ATP names went out early in Montreal, which means they have had some rest, and they have something to gain, in Cincinnati. Last week, I wondered if order would come from chaos on the women's side. Could the opposite happen on the men's side this time around?
As for the tournament just past, see my Racquet Reaction to Djokovic's hard-earned final-round win over Mardy Fish here.
First Quarter
Djokovic won on Sunday, but he looked a little weary doing it. Unless he’s gone off his gluten-free diet, he shouldn’t be exhausted just yet. Cincy will be only his second tournament since Wimbledon. Still, it should be hot, and any afternoon matches might test his newfound fitness.
Purely on form, of course, you can’t pick against Djokovic, and he has slogged through tough back-to-back Masters events twice already this year, in Indian Wells/Key Biscayne and Madrid/Rome, all without seeming tire or falter in any way. But this one might be the toughest. Djokovic could get home country favorites Ryan Harrison or John Isner early; or, alternatively, he could get the equally semi-dangerous Radek Stepanek, winner in D.C., or Stan Wawrinka, who showed a few flashes of form in Canada. I’m not sure what kind of game would work best against Djokovic at the moment. He was a shapeshifter who adapted well to his opponents in Montreal.
On the other side, we’ll see Andy Roddick for the first time since Wimbledon; he plays Philipp Kohlscheiber on Monday night. But the most intriguing name may be Gael Monfils’. He’s played well since his split with his old coach, Roger Rasheed, and might be a factor late in the tournament. If he can avoid Djokovic. Which won't be easy.
First round match to watch: Ernests Gulbis vs. Ivan Dodig
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Second Quarter
It doesn’t take long for an opening-round match to pop right out at you here: Federer is set to play del Potro, who got a retirement in his first round from Andreas Seppi. Both Federer and del Potro struggled in Canada, and both suffered disappointing losses at Wimbledon. So call this the Stop the Bleeding Cup. I haven't liked the way del Potro has played since, I don’t know, the spring, but his youthful explosveness could work against Federer the same way that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s did in Montreal.
Other names: Tomas Berdych is the second seed here, and Nicolas Almagro the third; each of them reached the middle rounds last week. The surprise is James Blake. He beat Marcos Baghdatis in the first round, and is ever so gradually raising himself from the dead.
First-round match to watch: Tommy Haas vs. Juan Monaco
Semifinalist: Del Potro
Third Quarter
Unpredictability reigns in this section, where Andy Murray, who is coming off a horrid first-round drubbing in Montreal, is the top seed, and David Ferrer, who skipped Canada with an injury, is on the opposite side. In between is the almost-as-unpredictable Tsonga. The Frenchman was brilliant in Montreal, until the semifinals, where he suddenly decided that he’d had enough.
This quarter is strong in general: Lurking around the seeds are Dimitrov, Tipsarevic, Melzer, Cilic, Nalbandian, and Nishikori. As for Murray, he has won the event before, but it’s hard to pick him to do anything after Montreal. He’ll have a tough opener as well, against the winner of Nalbandian and Nishikori. It might be the right moment for a rested Ferrer to take advantage .
First-round matches to watch: Tsonga-Cilic, Melzer-Simon, Nalbandian-Nishikori
Semifinalist: Ferrer
Fourth Quarter
Rafael Nadal’s form and prospects are a little less difficult to assess than Murray’s, but not much. He played some good tennis in losing to Dodig in Montreal, but couldn’t put the dagger in. In that way, it was reminiscent of his “accidental” loss to Ivan Ljubicic in Indian Wells last year. At the same time, it was also reminiscent of his more crucial loss to Djokovic at Key Biscayne in 2011. Which one did it resemble more? We'll get some information this week.
To put this latest accident/sign of doom behind him, Nadal will have to go through either Benneteau or Garcia-Lopez; the survivor of Youzhny-Llodra-Bellucci-Verdasco; and then the winner of the upper half, which includes Fish, Davydenko, and Gasquet. I would guess that Nadal will come out swinging and try to make a statement before the Open, except that that’s what I guessed last week. But an early loss for him would a bad sign for his chances in New York, one that couldn’t be blamed on rust or called an accident.
As for the surging-but-likely-gassed Fish, he might be prey to an early-round upset from Nikolay Davydenko, or, perhaps, from a newly respectable Richard Gasquet after that.
First-round match to watch and hope for the best: Gasquet vs. Dolgopolov. You’re bound to get something good from one of them. Both is probably too much to ask.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Semifinals: Djokovic d. del Potro; Nadal d. Ferrer
Final: Djokovic d. Nadal