!Picby Pete Bodo
If you thought last year's first-round pairing of John Isner and Nicolas Mahut at Wimbledon, exactly 12 months after their 183-game epic, was a remarkable example of the draw gods at their most mischievous, try this one for size: The same guys who played that riveting 16-14 in-the-fifth final in 2009, Roger Federer and Andy Roddick could meet in the first round this year.
Of course, Roddick might also end up with a less poignant if still difficult match-up; perhaps Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, or Andy Murray? Heck, Roddick has had a tough time with Tomas Berdych or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga—two more prospective first-round opponents.
This downturn of fortune is all because Roddick, 29 years old presently ranked No. 32, may end up unseeded at Wimbledon. The tournament has always rejected the seeding system the other tournaments now use (rightfully, I think), which is no system at all—they just peel the top 32 (or more) names off the rankings and seed them in that order. But because of the unique nature of grass courts, the dearth of events on turf, and the way some players who stink out the joint on clay are deadly on grass, Wimbledon has devised its own grass-court formula that it applies as a template over the ATP rankings.
No matter. Roddick still may not make the cut. He had semifinal points to defend at Queen's Club, where he was just knocked out in the first round. That won't help him earn Wimbledon seeding bonus points. And while enough players ranked above him may choose or be forced to miss Wimbledon, thus enabling players outside the Top 32 to be seeded, there's no guarantee at the moment that Roddick will be one of them. Wimbledon will announce its seedings on June 20, two days after the next official rankings are issued (and the results are factored into the Wimbledon seeding regimen).
Facing Federer may seem like a cruel fate for the only active American player who's been No. 1 and has won a Grand Slam singles title, but then there is this: The last guy Roddick beat was Federer, way back in March (overall, the Swiss star is 21-3 against Roddick, three of those wins having come in Wimbledon finals, and one in a semifinal). Since then, Roddick has lost six straight matches, bringing his season record for 2012 to a bleak 7-11.
The list of players who have taken Roddick's measure this year is, for a fan of his, depressingly colorful. At the Australian Open, Roddick had to quit partway through his second-round match with that other aging, seasoned warrior, Lleyton Hewitt. When he returned at San Jose, Roddick beat No. 203 Denis Kudla, but his young countryman took him to 6-4 in the third. Then Roddick lost his next match to Denis Istomin, and in Memphis—the only tournament Roddick won last year—Xavier Malisse took him out in the first round.
It only got worse. Of Roddick's losses, only one was to a player ranked inside the Top 20—Tomas Berdych, at Indian Wells. If you're doomed to have just one high point for the year so far, you could do worse than a win over Federer. But the joy of even that win was short-lived. Roddick was shockingly flat for his next match, and Juan Monaco rolled right through him. It continued downhill from there, right up to his latest loss was at Queen's Club to Edouard Roger-Vasselin.
Roddick immediately asked for a wild card into Eastbourne after that loss, which he was promptly given. But that's not the greatest deal in the world in the world for him, either. While I'm sure Roddick would be happy to sentenced to three consecutive weeks of competition—it would mean he went deep at Wimbledon—his recently tender hamstring and ankle might find that workload burdensome. Even in these days of drier, higher-bouncing courts, the hamstrings in particular get a more robust workout on grass than any other surface, because of all the lunging and bending required.
Last year was the first in a full decade that Roddick didn't finish inside the Top 10. His combative spirit has been praiseworthy, and he has turned over every rock looking for solutions to that neither fish-nor-fowl game of his. It's a shame to see him in this much of a tailspin, and it's been going on long enough to make you wonder if it's reversible.
Roddick's injury issues and his loss of form have had the predictable effect on pundits; they are beginning to bring up the "R" word with increasing frequency. It's terrible when it comes to that point, because as Pete Sampras told me, and we wrote in his autobiography, A Champion's Mind, even a great player can only ignore the chorus for so long. Eventually, the criticism and doubts will get to you.
As Roddick told reporters the other day in London, when he was asked how long he might continue playing: "I’m not at the point where I am to deal in absolutes with my career. I’m not going to sit here and say I’m going to play three more years—so take that as what you want."
Three more years would be nice; that would put Roddick at 33 for his final U.S. Open. But he could sure make his life a little easier if he found a few more wins in the coming weeks, to inch back to the higher ground occupied by seeded players.