Novak Djokovic faces career precipice ahead of 2025 Wimbledon

The words hung in the air in the hushed press interview room not long after Jannik Sinner overwhelmed Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the semifinals of the recent French Open.

“I mean, this could have been the last match ever I played here, so I don't know,” Djokovic told the reporters, who had seen him linger for a moment as he left the Stade Roland Garros following the match, bending to press his hand into the clay in a tender gesture. “That's why I was a bit more emotional even in the end.”

Djokovic, the 38-year old consensus men’s GOAT, had been edging ever closer to the precipice of retirement ever since he secured that precious Olympic gold medal in singles at the Paris Games in 2024. He will peer over the rim at Wimbledon, which starts next week with the seven-time champion seeded No. 5.

That seeding leaves Djokovic facing the prospect of having to beat not only his recent nemesis Sinner, but also No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. The Spanish star toppled Djokovic in the last two Wimbledon finals, frustrating his drive to win title No. 8 and equal Roger Federer in the record books. And Alcaraz is swollen with confidence these days.

Djokovic’s prospects are grim for a number of reasons. He has won just one title since his Olympic triumph, that of a third-tier ATP 250 event in Geneva in May. But slumming it with the hoi polloi did secure Djokovic’s historic 100th ATP title, a feat surpassed only by Jimmy Connors (109 titles) and Roger Federer (103).

That landmark win was the penultimate piece of unfinished business on Djokovic’s docket. He still faces a final task, surpassing Margaret Court as the only player to win 25 majors. The hour is late.

Wimbledon is next, which is my childhood favorite tournament. I'm going to do everything possible to get myself ready. I guess my best chances maybe are [at] Wimbledon or a faster hard court, maybe Australia or something like that. Novak Djokovic

It seems wrong-headed to reduce Djokovic’s epic struggles and glorious achievements to items on a to-do list, but the man himself approached it that way. At his pre-tournament US Open press conference in 2019, when Djokovic still trailed Roger Federer by four majors and Rafael Nadal by two, he was the only one to flat-out admit that the numbers mattered, that he wanted to finish on top. He experienced it as an obligation of sorts:

“It does also put a certain level of responsibility on me as well, because I am, you know, aiming to do that,” he said of the challenge. “It's definitely one of my ambitions and goals, if you want.”

This year’s Wimbledon is probably Djokovic’s last best chance to secure the final honor, even though his overall performance has been significantly better at the Australian Open. Djokovic has won Down Under 10 times, and may very well have that coveted 25th major by now had he followed the COVID-19 pandemic protocols in 2022. Instead, he was deported shortly after his arrival in Oz because he had refused vaccination against the virus.

The first Grand Slam of the year often goes on in the grip of extreme heat, and the hard courts in Melbourne Park are punishing. Djokovic once thrived in those conditions, but he’s been a victim of (presumably] age-related injuries and increased demands on his fitness. The trend came to a head this year’s tournament.

Djokovic was able to produce some heady tennis as he slashed through his first five opponents—including Carlos Alcaraz—to reach the semifinals. But he had to quit after losing the first set of his ensuing battle with Alexander Zverev, as the pain from a hamstring/muscle tear in his upper thigh became unbearable. It seems unlikely that he can win that tournament again.

Djokovic, who has treated his body as a temple on his unending quest for greater health and fitness, has historically demonstrated an amazing capacity for quick recovery from injury—often mending up during the course of an event. That doesn’t appear to be the case anymore, so he will have to be careful to avoid the kinds of tweaks and pulls that result from low bounces and slick grass.

Conversely, the soft turf, quick points, and cool climate at Wimbledon will help Djokovic conserve energy. Five hour knock-down, drag-out, hard-court battles may be too much of an ask, but the Serbian’s contortionist flexibility and quickness, superb service return, and relatively flat, precise placements with forehand and backhand are grass-court assets that can shorten points. The serve, Djokovic’s most underrated weapon, will play a critical role in his fortunes.

Djokovic has foregone any tune-up events on grass, a calculated risk partly taken to beef up his reserves of energy and stamina. He seems to be marshaling his resources for one big, final push at the place where the effort is most likely to pay off. There’s still the US Open after Wimbledon, but Djokovic’s history there has been uncharacteristically patchy.

Although he’s won four titles in New York, (2011, 2015, 2018, 2023), he’s lost six finals. The only place where he’s been less successful is Paris, but put that down to the extraordinary record of the King of Clay, Nadal. Djokovic’s losses in New York include the painful capitulation to Daniil Medvedev in 2021—a defeat that cost the loser a historic calendar-year Grand Slam.

I mean, this could have been the last match ever I played here, so I don't know. That's why I was a bit more emotional even in the end. Djokovic following his Roland Garros semifinal defeat

Djokovic will also need to find some mental and emotional equilibrium at Wimbledon, keeping negativity at bay. He made one of his most telling remarks this year was after he took a second consecutive first-round loss—both at Masters 1000 events—to Matteo Arnaldi, a player outside the Top 30 at the Mutua Madrid Open.

“I was hoping I can play one more match than I played in Monte Carlo,” Djokovic said afterward. “[It’s] kind of a new reality for me. . . trying to win a match or two, not really thinking about getting far in the tournament. . . It’s a completely different feeling from what I had in 20-plus years of professional tennis.”

It can’t have been easy managing so strong and clear a demand for recalibrating a lifetime of habits, hopes and expectations. Predictably, though, Djokovic did recover from that blow. He turned around and won Geneva, then he had an excellent French Open but for the final outcome against Sinner.

Djokovic’s words after he lost in Paris suggest that he is girding for a last stand, one more shot at that 25th major. “Wimbledon is next, which is my childhood favorite tournament,” he said. “I'm going to do everything possible to get myself ready. I guess my best chances maybe are [at] Wimbledon or a faster hard court, maybe Australia or something like that.”

There are not many last best chances left for Djokovic. Wimbledon is top among them.