Novak Djokovic’s shock loss to Luca Nardi shows, after his defeat in Australia, that this year will be different

In the days after Novak Djokovic lost to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open semifinals, three or four superfans of the Serb asked me whether they thought it was the beginning of the end for him. The idea seemed a bit premature to me, but I guess when a player wins a tournament 10 times, and then suddenly loses, in fairly one-sided fashion, it can set off alarm bells.

I answered the same way each time: Djokovic obviously wasn’t sharp and didn’t show a whole lot of fire against Sinner, but one defeat does not a demise make. Yes, he’s 36, but it seems unlikely that he would come off one of his best seasons, in which he won three Grand Slam titles and ran away with the No. 1 ranking, and go straight into terminal decline.

Alarm bells must be ringing even more loudly among the Djokovic fanbase today. On Monday at Indian Wells, he suffered a much more surprising defeat to another Italian, Luca Nardi. Numbers-wise, this ranks among the stunning results in tennis history. The 20-year-old Nardi came in ranked 123rd, he had a career ATP record of 3-12, and he only made it into the main draw as a Lucky Loser after failing to qualify. Yet on this night, before a delighted night-session crowd, he fired twice as many winners (34 to 17) as his 24-time Slam champ opponent, and had no trouble closing him out in the final set.

“Congrats to him for particularly in the third set playing some great, great tennis,” Djokovic said of Nardi, a player he had never faced before.

As Djokovic says, the wiry Nardi combined light-on-his-feet mobility with the livest of live arms. He drew oohs and aahs with his bullet winners into the corners. He stepped into the court to hit them, and knocked Djokovic backward with their pace and depth. He won the cat-and-mouse points at the net, showed off a deft backhand drop shot, and served out the match with a confident swing-volley winner and an ace.

“I knew he possesses great quality tennis from the baseline, especially the forehand side. Moves well. Very talented,” Djokovic said.

Then the world No. 1 turned to assess his own game.

“I was more surprised with my level,” he said, echoing his reaction to his loss to Sinner in Australia. “My level was really, really bad.”

“I made some really terrible unforced errors. Just quite defensive tennis, and not much on the ball in the third, and that’s it.”

Early in the third set, Djokovic saved break points and held after a 12-minute service game. He pumped the crowd up for the first time. He seemed ready to take over, as he eventually did in his first match, against Aleksander Vukic. Instead, Djokovic struggled to put his best shot, his return, into the court, even on Nardi’s second serves. Instead of locking down, as he’s famous for, Djokovic’s ground strokes broke down at important moments.

I was more surprised with my level. My level was really, really bad. Novak Djokovic

As surprising as this loss is, it’s the Australian Open defeat that makes it more concerning. When you start the season with a Slam win, as Djokovic traditionally does, you can play with some degree of ease—with house money—for the rest of the year. Losing to Sinner in Melbourne means he can’t do that in 2024.

Now every loss will be scrutinized more. Now he’ll be asked about his title drought every time he loses (he got a question about it on Monday, even though he won the ATP Finals in November). Now he may begin to question his selective scheduling; this was just his second match in six weeks. Now he may press a little bit more when he falls behind. Now, maybe, he’ll begin to wonder what some of his fans are wondering: Am I finally losing a step compared to the young guys?

“Yeah, no titles this year, that’s not something I’m used to,” Djokovic said. “I was starting the season most of my career with a Grand Slam win, or Dubai win, or any tournament.”

What seemed most notable to me, in his losses to Sinner and Nardi, is that he faced two young guys who hit with a mix of power and precision that can take the racquet out of anyone’s hand, including Djokovic’s. Sinner is ranked in the Top 5, and Nardi is ranked outside the Top 100, but overall, the sport keeps moving forward. From Djokovic’s point of view, his opponents must seem to look younger, and hit bigger, with each passing year.

By the end of his press conference, Djokovic had half-jokingly begun to lower his own expectations for himself.

“I guess every trophy that eventually comes my is going to be great,” he said with a smile.

“It’s fine. You know, it’s part of the sport. Hopefully I’ll win some more and still keep going.”

Two defeats does not a demise make. Djokovic is still No. 1 in the world. He almost certainly has more major titles in him. All we can say is that, after Australia, this year will be different.