Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev: Who should you bet on?

We were supposed to see Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic battle in the semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open, but the 24-time Grand Slam champion had to retire after dropping the first-set tiebreaker. Djokovic was dealing with a torn hamstring he suffered in his quarterfinal win over Carlos Alcaraz in Melbourne, and he simply wasn’t able to continue. Well, we’re now going to see these two dance again, on Wednesday, June 4, with a spot in the Roland Garros semifinals on the line.

Both these players were struggling on clay heading into this tournament. Zverev did win a title in Munich, but between the three clay-court Masters events, Zverev’s best result was a quarterfinal appearance in Italy, which is disappointing for somebody with his clay-court ability.

Zverev has found a little something in Paris. Last year’s runner-up has earned straightforward wins over Learner Tien, Jesper De Jong and Flavio Cobolli. He was also up 6-4, 3-0 against Tallon Griekspoor in the fourth round before the Dutchman had to retire. Still, that was a solid showing for Zverev, and it got him off the court to get his legs ready for Djokovic.

The problem with Zverev is that we haven’t seen him win a big match in a long time. The biggest win he has to his name since arriving in Europe is a 7-6 (3), 6-1 victory over Arthur Fils. Djokovic is going to be a significant step up in competition.

Djokovic’s low points on clay were lower than Zverev’s. He lost in straight sets to Alejandro Tabilo in Monte Carlo, then went to Madrid and lost in the same fashion against Matteo Arnaldi. Djokovic also skipped the 1000-level event in Rome, leading to some real uncertainty approaching the year's second major. But Djokovic went to Geneva to find a little something, and he left with a Stella-like groove. In my opinion, all Djokovic ever needed was some matches under his belt, and he got that in Switzerland.

I was never worried about him being “washed.” Just look at the runs he made in Australia and Miami. And not only did Djokovic get to play four matches in Geneva, but TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations had numbers that showed his ball striking there was exceptional. His movement also got better as the tournament progressed. So, I started to buy Djokovic as a contender in Paris, and the level has only gone up since the three-time Roland Garros champion got to France.

Djokovic comes into this match after straight-set wins over Mackenzie McDonald, Corentin Moutet, Filip Misolic and Cameron Norrie. That’s not exactly the toughest road in the world, but Djokovic didn’t play around with any of those opponents. He hit most of them off the court. Now, he’s looking the part of a Top 5 player in the world again, and he’s the exact type of player that can give Zverev nightmares.

Nobody in the history of tennis has done more as a returner than Djokovic, so the Serbian should be able to give Zverev some trouble there. Of course, Zverev is one of the best servers on the planet, and there will be plenty of quick service holds. But for as powerful as Zverev is with the ball on his racquet, he’s not as good as he needs to be at hitting his spots. At some point, that should catch up to him in this match.

Zverev’s lack of aggression should also be a big issue here. The German badly wants to extend rallies and wait out errors from opponents, but you can’t do that when Djokovic is playing well. The 38-year-old doesn't miss nearly enough.

Djokovic is also tremendous at attacking his opponent’s weaknesses, and Zverev has one: his forehand just isn’t reliable. Zverev has been hitting it with more conviction in Paris, and he does have some week-long stretches in which he plays bigger from that side of the court. But in these types of matches—the ones with the biggest stakes—he tends to freeze up, take pace off that shot and leave his balls shorter in the court. If he does that here, Djokovic will calmly come up and pummel them.

At some point, we’re going to see guys like Zverev become too much for an aging Djokovic, but I just don’t think we’re there yet. So, I’d suggest taking the generous price you’re being offered on the greatest player in the history of the sport.

Pick: Djokovic ML (-110)

NOTE: If you took my pre-tournament advice on Tennis Bets Live and played Djokovic to win Quarter 2 at +250 odds, I wouldn’t add anything to that position. If anything, I’d play Zverev as a hedge. This is a good opportunity to remove any risk.