Novak Djokovic hasn’t lost a completed match at Wimbledon since 2016. Can anyone stop him?

The men’s game is a two-tiered system these days, and you can see it in the headliners at Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 1 seed, is the premier point getter, and the dominant player at regular tour events. Novak Djokovic, the No. 2 seed, basically saves his best for the majors these days. He has three titles in 2023; two of them are majors, Australian Open and Roland Garros. Djokovic could finish the season with almost nothing to show for it—except the Grand Slam.

One thing is for sure: No. 2, not No. 1, is the favorite. Djokovic hasn’t lost a completed match at Wimbledon since 2016. So the first question we need to ask is: Is there anyone who has the slightest chance of putting an end to that run? (CLICK HERE to view the complete draw.)

First Quarter

This section is headlined by two young players, Alcaraz and Holger Rune, who (a) look to be the future of the men’s game, and (b) have little experience on grass. This will be Alcaraz’s fourth career tournament on the surface, while Rune has played—and lost—just one match at Wimbledon. But both looked promising last week at Queen’s Club, where Alcaraz won the title and Rune reached the semis.

There are players in this quarter who could take advantage of their lack of experience. Frances Tiafoe won a title in Stuttgart earlier this spring; Alex de Minaur beat Rune and made the final in Queen’s; Grigor Dimitrov has been a semifinalist at Wimbledon; Alexander Zverev has gradually found is old level this season. And buried deep in the brackets is 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini.

Alcaraz could also face two early threats, from Arthur Rinderknech, who almost beat him two weeks ago, and 25th seed Nicolas Jarry, a strong server who has been one of the season’s surprises.

First-round matches to watch:

• Tiafoe vs. Wu Yibing
• Berrettini vs. Lorenzo Sonego. Sonego beat his countryman on the same surface three weeks ago, 6-1, 6-2.
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Arthur Fils

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Second Quarter

Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are the two highest seeds here. Both are Top 5 players, but neither is at his best on grass. That may open a path for the third-highest seed, local favorite Cam Norrie, to repeat his semifinal run from a year ago. But Norrie will face his own early challenges, possibly from two Americans, Chris Eubanks and Sebastian Korda.

On Medvedev’s side, there are also a couple of athletic shot-makers, Francisco Cerundolo and Tommy Paul, who could pull an upset or two. As for Tsitsipas, he’ll start against Dominic Thiem; if he wins, he could face Andy Murray.

Returning: Milos Raonic, who starts against Austrian qualifier Dennis Novak

First-round matches to watch:

• Tsitsipas vs. Thiem
• Murray vs. fellow Brit Ryan Peniston

Semifinalist: Norrie

Third Quarter

What are Casper Ruud’s chances on grass? The surface doesn’t seem to suit his long strokes and heavy-topspin style, and he lost in the second round at Wimbledon last year. The fact that he hasn’t played any tune-up matches on grass, since reaching the Roland Garros final, makes him one of the question marks of the tournament.

The same might be said for the second seed in this section, Jannik Sinner. Last year he beat Alcaraz and led Djokovic by two sets to love in the quarters at Wimbledon. But the last time we saw him, two weeks ago, he was limping off the court after retiring in Halle.

The eighth-seeded Sinner is a fragile talent. If he’s healthy, he could be on a collision course with ninth-seeded Taylor Fritz. The American was a couple of points from beating Rafael Nadal and making the semifinals last year. Can he overcome a recent run of poor form—Fritz has lost early at all three grass tune-ups he’s played—and make his long-awaited semifinal breakthrough at a Slam? It would seem to be a golden opportunity. But Fritz will start with a tough match, against an in-form Yannick Hanfmann

• First-round match to watch: Fritz vs. Hanfmann

Semifinalist: Fritz

Fourth Quarter

Let’s go back to our original question: Can anyone beat, or even threaten, Djokovic at a tournament where he’s the four-time defending champion?

Djokovic could face Stan Wawrinka in the third round, but the player who stands out is the same one that the Serb beat in the final here last year, Nick Kyrgios. As is often the case, Kyrgios will return to Wimbledon severely short of matches. He’s played a total of one in 2023, which he lost. Still, if he’s healthy, it may take a strong effort to knock him out. He’ll start against David Goffin, and is scheduled to meet No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev in the third round. Kyrgios leads his head to head with Rublev 2-1.

The player perhaps most likely to succeed on Djokovic’s side is Hubert Hurkacz. Djokovic is 5-0 against him, but Hubi did take a set when they met at Wimbledon in 2019. That counts as something of a victory against Djokovic at a major these days.

First-round match to watch:

• Kyrgios vs. Goffin
• Stan Wawrinka vs. Emil Ruusuvuori. The winner could face Djokovic in the third round.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Semifinals: Norrie d. Alcaraz; Djokovic d. Fritz

Final: Djokovic d. Norrie