by Pete Bodo
Novak Djokovic is 53-1 on the year and operating on a plateau that nobody in recent memoryânot even Roger Federer or Rafael Nadalâhas attained. That's even more striking when you factor in the intangibles, like the recent trifecta he posted against Rafa (Djokovic got the better of Nadal twice on clay, and also on the slick grass at Wimbledon), or the fact that the lone blemish on Djokovic's record is a semifinal loss to the consensus choice as the Greatest Player of All Time, Federer.
And here's the interesting bitâwe're in that portion of the season when Djokovic is in his element, and where his career move began last year. He's on hard courts, where his record is superb. Since the summer of 2007, when he won his first summer Masters title in Canada, he's failed to make the quarters at these August events just once (in Cincinnati, following his 2007 triumph in Montreal). And on top of all that, he's fitter than ever before, which will make him that much tougher in the intense heat and humidity.
Djokovic hasn't ever lost before the third round in the U.S. Open, and he's a two-time semifinalist and two-time runner-up. Only Federer can trump that record of consistency.
Djokovic has demonstrated that he's not content to rest on the laurels he earned when he won Wimbledon. So the question now becomes: Just how far can he take this thing? Can he put together an even greater year than Federer had in 2005, or Nadal enjoyed just a year ago? Will he shatter the record for highest winning percentage, established in 1984 by John McEnroe (.965, an 82-3 record, with wins at two major and 12 lesser tournaments)?
The numbers suggest that Djokovic has a real shot at recording the best year ever; he's indisputably on his way, although nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, or the next day. Djokovic set a new mark a week ago when he became the first man to win five Masters in one year. And he's done that in roughly seven months, with three Masters tournaments still to come. He's beaten Nadal five consecutive times this year, at least once on each of the major surfaces, and in the championship match each time. And he's 3-1 against Federer on clay and hard courts, losing only that semi at the French. So let's see how Djokovic's year stacks up, so far, against the three other men who have gone on a comparable tear.
John McEnroe, 1984: The odd thing about McEnroe's record-shattering year is that it will forever haunt him. That's because he blew a huge, two-set lead against Ivan Lendl in the French Open final, losing 7-5 in the fifth. There went McEnroe's career Grand Slamânot to mention a significant chunk of his legacyâdown the drain, and it ultimately meant that he would win only two majors in '84 (Wimbledon and the U.S. Open; he skipped the Australian Open).
The only other matches McEnroe lost that year were to No. 70 Vijay Amritraj in the first round of Cincinnati and a Davis Cup rubber to Henrick Sundstrom. Djokovic is running almost neck-and-neck with McEnroe at this point in the season; both men have or had lost just one match coming out of the Wimbledon break, and it was to a quality opponent in the late stage of a major.
McEnroe's record points to year-end fatigue as a possible obstacle for Djokovic, should he continue his run. Top players become more vulnerable as the long year goes on. With nine titles in hand already, Djokovic could equal or perhaps even better McEnroe's 14 championships in '84.
Roger Federer, 2005: Federer lost to Marat Safin in the Australian Open semis, and to Nadal in the semis of the French Open. He won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. His other two losses were to Richard Gasquet in the quarters at Monte Carlo and Nalbandian in the ATP Championships. In retrospect, that loss to Nalbandianâ7-6 (3) in the fifth, in the last official match of the year!âwas enormous, even if the early-season failure against Gasquet was more damaging and less explicable in the long run.
Thus far, Djokovic is doing better this year than Federer did in 2005. He's got two majors in hand and has won everything he's played but the French Open. Can Nalbandian, who's struggling but showing flashes of that familiar genius, pop out of the woodwork to put a dent in the dream year of Djokovic, as he did for Federer? The Argentine halted a 35-match winning streak of Federer's with the upset, while Federer stopped Djokovic cold this year at 43 straight matches in Paris. Federer won 11 titles in 2005âthat's certainly within Djokovic's reach.
Rafael Nadal, 2010: When it comes to a glossy winning percentage, 80-10 doesn't come close to threatening the stats posted by Federer and McEnroe. But Nadal arguably had a better year than either of those men because he won three majors in 2010, while his two rivals in history only won two each in the year when they were most consistently great (Federer, ironically, won three majors in 2004, '06 and '07, but didn't equal his 2005 winning percentage in either of those years).
Nadal's year began inauspiciously, with a loss to Nikolay Davydenko in Doha. Then he had to quit because of injury during his quarterfinal match with Murray at the Australian Open. And three of his eight other losses came in the four events he played after he secured his third major of the year in New York. The sheer number of losses sustained by Nadal almost ensures that Djokovic will end up with a better winning percentage than Rafa. The big question is, will Djokovic match Nadal with three-majors?
Frankly, the amazing thing to me is that we're even talking about this; the idea that Djokovic can go the rest of the year losing one, maybe two matches seems, well, outlandish. But he's come this far losing just one, and three of the majors are already behind us. So anything is possible, if not probable.
[[Advisory - I will be away the rest of this week, for the second part of my vacation. Bobby Chintapalli, who's on the ground in Cincinnati, will be filling in for me with posts that ought to keep the action lively around here. Then, starting Monday, I'll be on site at the USTABJKNTC in Flushing Meadows and writing from there daily through the U.S. Open - PB]]